Fragile Democracy

No checks. No balance. 

Democracy is at risk.

In the aftermath of last Thursday's debate, Democrats have been contemplating the threat to American democracy in the event of a Trump landslide victory.

It would mean Republican leaders and voters might stop denying the validity of presidential elections. There is that consolation. 

The Supreme Court just removed a guardrail against strong-man lawlessness. A 6-3 majority ruled that presidents are immune and nearly un-prosecutable for crimes they do in their official capacity, including taking bribes in exchange for pardons, and perhaps even that extreme hypothetical of telling Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival. The justice system is no check on a president.

A charismatic demagogue needs the support of a legislature, at least at first, in order to concentrate power. Big presidential wins traditionally have big coattails. A Trump landslide would almost certainly mean that Republicans re-take a majority in the Senate and increase their majority in the House. Republicans have purged the party of visible RINOs, so the complexion of both chambers would move decisively MAGA-ward. It would be up to a legislative chamber to say "no" to a president. There is no reason to think Republican majorities would do so.  

Jack Mullen reflected on the history of watershed elections. Mullen spent his youth in Medford, Oregon, worked with me for a Democratic congressman, lived in the Bay Area, and now lives in Washington, D.C. where he follows sports and politics. He remains an Oakland A's fan.

 

Mullen, with famous A's fan "Road-trip Mike."

Guest Post by Jack Mullen

Democracy has been a fragile thing, often hanging by a thread, from the times the Greeks established it for themselves, and up through the 21st  Century.

America’s showcase as a long-running, stable democracy is again being tested. In some ways this 2024 election resembles our pre-Civil War election of 1860. Maybe, even more, the 1932 German election.

The 1860 presidential election decided the long-term future of a United States in its then-established form. Voters in 1860 understood the magnitude of their votes. Fortune smiled upon Abraham Lincoln as his newly formed united Republican Party defeated Stephen A. Douglas (Northern Democrat), John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democrat) and John Bell (Constitutional Unionist).

Democracy’s saving grace had Douglas, Breckinridge and Bell splitting the anti-Lincoln vote. Democracy, and the inclusion of Black Americans, was better protected by the strong national government that emerged from the war than it was in the states, both southern and northern, after the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments. 

There was no such luck for post-WWI Germany. President Paul von Hindenburg was re-elected as president in 1932, but it was the down-ballot election of Nazi party members that history now knows thrust the Nazi party into control of the Reichstag. Von Hindenburg, against his better judgement, in an attempt to accommodate the new power swing inside the Reichstag, appointed the Nazi leader, Adolf Hitler, as Chancellor. Two years later, von Hindenburg died in office. The Reichstag building was burned under mysterious circumstances, and the Nazis blamed the arson on communists. Out of the chaos, Hitler’s power as chancellor allowed him to set up his dictatorship.

The similarities between Germany in the early 1930’s and the U.S. today in the U.S. lie down-ballot. Resentful and angry German voters, suffering from the long-term effects of the punitive Treaty of Versailles and the spiraling effects of inflation and unemployment, took their frustrations to the ballot box. The Nazi power swing placing them in control of the Reichstag proved too strong for Germany to overcome. Democracy died.

Down-ballot voting in this November 's U.S. election will be just as pivotal as it was in Germany. The alarm bells are sounding, are enough people are listening?

No,, what scares me is not that the likes of Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort and Steve Bannon return to power under a President Trump. A vibrant House and Senate could help us survive even that assault on democracy. They would be a check and balance.

No, what scares me is the down-ballot vote that puts MAGA Republicans in full control of the government. I cringe at the thought of a Republican election victory that returns Mike Johnson as speaker of the House and the Senate to GOP control under the leadership of someone MAGA-compliant. If the House and Senate become legislative tools of Trump, willing to approve his plans, then he will be in the same position as was Hitler to take take openly un-democratic actions. We already know the Supreme Court majority will affirm its legality, saying they want a "bold" president unafraid of prosecution for committing crimes. Republican legislators would be high-profile validators, assuring the public that it is the will of the people and consistent with American norms, and traditions. 

We Americans will have done it to ourselves. We will have handed democratic power to a person who has demonstrated that he doesn’t respect it. Think about that on this day that we celebrate having independence from a king.

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