Oregon redistricting, part two

In the November midterms, people voted their party.

But not always.

Journalist Tam Moore continues his observations about the after-effects of Oregon's redistricting. 

Oregon Democrats controlled the re-districting process, and they had the Democratic votes to put where they needed them. They did not do scorched-earth redistricting in the manner of Texas, North Carolina and Florida. They created two competitive districts. A Republican won one of them 51-49. Biden won that district 53-44, a 9-point margin. The Democratic candidate ran 11% below its partisan lean. It was one of 18 seats won by Republican House candidates in districts that Biden carried. There were only five districts won by Democratic candidates in districts won by Trump. That skew allowed the GOP to win a House majority.

Guest Post by Tam Moore

Let's take a closer look at how how voters preformed in the two congressional districts so carefully crafted by Democrats.

Moore

Senate Bill 881-3, the law creating Oregon’s six congressional districts, made profound changes by gerrymandering the previous 5th district so it stretched from Portland suburbs all the way across the Cascade Mountain range to the City of Bend in Central Oregon. The new 6th district was fashioned to include parts of four upper Willamette Valley counties, including the affluent Portland suburb of Lake Oswego and a lot of vineyards and farmland.

Oregon voter registration, November 2022, 5th Congressional District:
Democrat--171,951
Republican--147,177
Non-affiliated & minor parties--213,129

On paper, the Democrats held an edge in the 5th District where in the primary Democrats retired incumbent Congressman Kurt Schrader in favor of Jaime McLeod-Skinner, backed by the progressive wing of the party. So how did it come out in November? McLeod-Skinner has 168,959 votes in the unofficial tally, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the Republican, is winner with 176,733. 

McLeod-Skinner won a controversial primary election against a very conservative Democratic incumbent. He was understood in Democratic activist circles to be a mix of better known U.S. senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema. Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi both backed Schrader in the primary, standing by the incumbent Democrat. Democrats voted their hearts, and McLeod-Skinner won 58-42.

The American Prospect

The non-affiliated voters went with Chavez-DeRemer, or maybe Democrats who had supported Schrader for 14 years carried some animosity after their brutal primary.

Oregon voter registration, November 2022, 6th Congressional District:
Democrat--148,462
Republican--122,728
Non-affiliated & minor parties--199,823

Again, Democrats held the edge in the newly-created 6th district which Andrea Salinas shepherded through the Oregon House as chair of Kotek’s two redistricting committees. Within weeks, she announced for congress and this spring won the Democratic nomination. Here’s the unofficial tally from Nov. 8, where the Associated Press called the race for Salinas: Salinas 146,577, Mike Erickson, a Republican, 139,431. A third-party candidate picked up 2.3 % of the vote. 

But that’s not the end of it: Salinas ran a television ad describing a 2016 arrest of Erickson. He has a suit in Clackamas Circuit Court – based on an Oregon law which says a court can void an election if it is shown the winning candidate made an untruthful statement which changed results of the election. The judge on December 1 rejected a petition by Salinas’ attorney, letting the suit go forward to trial.

The Erickson campaign says it notified Salinas’ campaign of “factual errors” when the attack ad first went public, but the TV spot wasn’t pulled or revised. 

Click: Oregon Capital Chronicle

The lawsuit seeks $800,000 which it says is the cost of ads Erickson felt compelled to run to counter the Salinas attack ad.

Two lessons from these congressional contests:

One -- Just because your party has a paper majority doesn’t mean you win; there are countless factors in an election including how candidates for other office conduct their campaigns.

Two -- When you get into negative advertising, there are consequences if you don’t get your facts right.

 [Note: To get daily home delivery of this blog go to https://petersage.substack.com Subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]