GOP Silent Consent to Overthrowing the Election.

Moderate Republicans in Oregon have a problem. They need to be Trump-compliant in a state that rejected Trump.

Trump is making it hard for them. So is Liz Cheney.

     "Until January 6th, we were proof positive for the world that a nation conceived in liberty could long endure. But now, January 6th threatens our most sacred legacy. The question for every one of us who serves in Congress, for every elected official across this great nation, indeed, for every American is this: Will we adhere to the rule of law? Will we respect the rulings of our courts? Will we preserve the peaceful transition of power? Or will we be so blinded by partisanship that we throw away the miracle of America?"

          U.S. Rep. Elizabeth Cheney, (R) Wyoming

Click: NBC

A Republican in national office is exposed. There are yes-or-no votes, and Trump does not tolerate apostasy.  Loyal and subservient as Mike Pence was, when he would not unilaterally discard votes for Biden he was no longer part of the Trump GOP. On January 7 Mitch McConnell said on the floor of the Senate, "The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the president and other powerful people." McConnell, too, lost Trump's blessing.

Liz Cheney is the most visible current example of a Republican who wouldn't go along with overthrowing the election, and she is condemned by Trump, of course, but also now condemned by the House GOP. She keeps saying what must not be said aloud, that their party's hero attempted--and still attempts--to remain in power despite losing the election. She shames Republicans in national office. 

But Republican state and local candidates have a place to hide. They might win in blue Oregon. It starts with the reality that there is restlessness in the public mood. Problems accumulate. Enemies accumulate. COVID shutdown. Unemployment check delays. Portland disturbances night after night. As a senior Oregon Democratic political operative said to me yesterday, 

Peter, we could have a Republican governor and Republicans for three of the six U.S. Representatives. Democrats soiled their brand, what with Portland and everything. We are all sick of Portland, not just downstate. Up here, too.

The path for a Republican is narrow, though, because the state as a whole opposes Trump and Trump is in the center of the GOP brand. Victory statewide would require the right political biography, combined with mumbling a non-answer to uncomfortable subjects. Oregon has a tradition of voting for Main-Street, Chamber-of-Commerce Republicans. They project a kind of good-government civic-mindedness at odds with the national GOP current message. Populist Trump condemns the institutions of government, corporate elites, and the "Fake News" media. Old-school Chamber of Commerce Republicans lead institutions and support them, and are friendly with the local and state media. They were comfortable with the Bush-Romney party with its traditional pro-business, anti-union, low-regulation, low-tax policies. They don't hate the elites; they are the elites, or friendly with them.

I talk with Republican political operatives, too. (In my long career as a financial advisor I got along well with Republicans.) I asked a senior Republican advocate and donor how Main Street Republicans were going to deal with the Donald Trump/Liz Cheney problem. Isn't ignoring an effort to void an election and then an attack on the Capitol a bit like the macabre joke, "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" I got this answer:

Peter, move on. January 6 is behind us. Biden is president. We're not going to talk about Trump and what he says about the election. It just isn't a subject we think about. 

I asked again later, and got:

Peter, we aren't talking about Trump and whether or not the election was fair. After the primary Republicans can talk about bipartisanship, but until then we won't be commenting on Trump or the election. We are looking past that.

It might work. A candidate might have enough message discipline to keep refusing steadfastly to address what Trump keeps advocating, what Democrats and Liz Cheney keep condemning, and what a questioner keeps asking. "No comment," may seem like sufficient agreement in the ears of Republican voters who expect and assume agreement. It may be ambiguous enough to Democrats satisfied that at least someone isn't praising the insurrection. The strategy is to mumble and not comment.

The big confounding factor will be Trump and Cheney. It doesn't appear that either will let it go, and they aren't mumbling. 

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