The election will be rigged

The 2020 election outcome had better be a landslide.

Or else chaos.

Trump is famous for saying that the system was rigged. Democrats are saying it now.  There is bi-partisan agreement that elections are a rigged game. 

That is the setup for a crisis.

In 2016 Trump famously said that he would abide by the results of the election "if I win."  At that point in the campaign his victory was widely thought unlikely. Then he carried Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by a total of fewer than 80,000 votes, and became president.

Click, 2016: "IF I WIN"

We have a president who attacks the credibility of institutions of government including the judiciary, and calls "fake" the media and academic referees of government. Trump made his case, and a significant block of the public agrees. 

Democrats, too. It is now a bipartisan consensus. Government is rigged, especially elections.

Democrats generally acknowledge that the DNC rigged the 2016 Democratic nomination. Democrats and Republican both agree that Russia intentionally interfered with the 2016 election, the only dispute is over whether they changed the result. 

Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren uses exactly the words of Bernie Sanders regarding the American economic and political system, saying it is "rigged," rigged against almost everyone in order to benefit the very, very wealthy. 

Every Democrat says the economic and political system is unfair to women, to Latinos, to blacks, to the 99% of Americans who aren't wealthy. Every Democratic presidential candidate agrees that Citizens United and big money corrupts the political system. 

In 2020 there is a consensus: the institutions of American government are corrupt, and that is a credibility problem for the 2020 election. 

***The election shows every potential for being close. The election will likely come down to a swing voters and turnout in a half dozen swing states.

***It is entirely plausible that, once again, the majority popular vote will have a different result than the electoral college vote.

***There is a partisan split on how to combat 2020 foreign interference, with McConnell proudly blocking efforts by Democrats to demand audit-able paper ballots. Democrats say they are addressing the threat Mueller described; Republicans say that the laws in place now are adequate, and Democrats are trying to delegitimize Trump's 2016 election. Bottom line: no bipartisan consensus on foreign interference.

***Anything Russians can do in cyber warfare can be done by the Iranians, the Chinese, and, of course, by Americans. Both Democrats and Republicans have reason to suspect foul play.

***The US intelligence agencies lack credibility. Trump says they are corrupt. The resignation of Dan Coats as Director of National Intelligence and his replacement by John Ratcliffe exacerbates this. Ratcliffe proved his loyalty to Trump by arguing in the Mueller hearing that Obama, not Trump, should have been investigated, and that Mueller investigation should not even have looked into Trump obstruction of justice. Ratcliffe put his stake in the ground: he is a Trump loyalist.

***The Supreme Court nomination and appointment process solidified the image of the Court as a political branch, now voting 5-4 Republican, if necessary to meet partisan ends. 

Coming Constitutional Crisis. 

2016 Electoral Map

There is one sure way to avoid a crisis: a Trump landslide win. The economy is strong, Trump's racial talk has good traction with non-college whites in swing states, and Democrats are likely to nominate a person who appeals to the most progressive and woke partisans. That nominee may fail to assemble the Hillary coalition and instead only manage the McGovern one. If Trump wins big Trump will love it and Democrats cannot contest it. 

There is a second, sure path to avoiding the crisis: a Trump landslide based on Democratic division. If Democrats nominate a centrist and the Bernie/AOC-oriented left protest the nomination and sit out or vote for a third party, causing a Trump landslide, then the blame would focus on Democratic division, not corrupt interference, and Democrats could not contest the election.

Both of these are easily possible.

A less certain way to avoid one is a Democratic landslide, one that is predicted by polls and that is confirmed by a very strong showing in House and Senate races. This could happen, and a big win would have credibility, especially if confirmed with Susan Collins losing Maine, Bullock running and winning a Senate race in Montana and Hickenlooper doingthe same in Colorado, with McConnell unseated in Kentucky. Then the rejection of Trump would be so clear that the GOP establishment will not back Trump in protesting the election. 

The most likely outcome, though, is a close election, coming down to a few states with close outcomes. The vote count has already been de-legitimized. There will be enough room for doubt to demand recounts, to demand examination of the voting machines, to rue the fact that there are no paper ballots to audit, to complain about ballot design ,or long lines at the polling places, or absentee ballot irregularities. Both sides will doubt the result.

The worst outcome for the election's credibility would be a close Democratic victory tally on election night. Trump would not accept the result. It would get tied up in court. Trump, Fox, and GOP officeholders will object and file suit, hoping to stop any electoral college vote, in which case the election would go to the House, with each state casting one vote where Trump would win. Delay means the election switches from Democrat to Republican. Crisis.

A close election night tally for Trump, like the one in 2016, will be disputed, but Trump would have a better basis for the victory he would claim. He would hold the levers of legitimate power, and it would be a reprise of the 2000 election. The GOP establishment would back Trump up, saying sore losers, as would the Supreme Court, which would end the legal challenges. Crisis.

There is only one happy result for Democrats and the credibility of the election: a big, big win.