It is Trump's Party, now more than ever.
Oregon Republican voters chose Trump over Kasich four to one. There is a culture war going on and Trump is the resistance.
Democrats beware: There is a Red Wave out there. It may be growing.
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| Nancy Pelosi, boogeyman. |
Trump won, with 253,000 votes; Cruz got 65,000; Kasich got 62,000.
Yesterday, in Georgia, Republican voters had a clear choice of their own, in a run-off election between Brian Kemp, the Georgia Secretary of State, and Casey Cagle, the Lieutenant Governor.
Kemp won big.
Kemp got Trump's tweeted endorsement a week before the election. Kemp ran as a Trump-style ethno-nationalist populist. Gayle ran more as a conservative, with the backing of the state's GOP leaders. That signals what kind of party the GOP voters want: Trump-style.
Kemp messaged opposition to the policies and values of the coastal elites:
Identity: "This is the state of Georgia. We are a red state."
Resistance to cultural liberals: "We don’t need the radical left telling us how to live, worship and raise our family," and "you want a politically incorrect conservative, that's me."
The ad revels in in-your-face symbols of disdain for the urban, Prius driving, liberal. "I've got a big truck."
"I own guns that no one is taking away."
Pugnacious, bring-it-on tone: He ran an ad showing him holding a shotgun in his pickup truck. He doesn't use the polite liberal language of "undocumented immigrants." He says he has the truck and gun "just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take them home myself.”
Attack news media: "the fake news media machine."
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Guns: Ran a controversial commercial holding, pointing a gun. It imbeds a message of cultural conservatism, the adult man demanding respect from the younger man thinking to date his daughter, with Kemp exercising authority from a position of power. The young man kept saying "Yes, sir."
Immigration: Kemp's ad "Track and Deport" starts with victims "all killed by illegal immigrants," and defines immigration as a public safety issue. Donald Trump's pre-runoff endorsement tweet noted "Brian is tough on crime, strong on the border and illegal immigration. He loves our Military and our Vets and protects our Second Amendment. I give him my full and total endorsement."
There is a message here for Democrats.
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The political situation for Trump should be devastating. Michael Cohen is releasing tapes of Trump paying off a Playboy model. Stormy Daniels is dogging him. His former campaign manager is cooperating with the Mueller probe. Russians are indicted for interfering with the election on Trump's behalf. The FISA warrant material showed that there was plenty of reason for the FBI to look at Carter Page. Trump himself looked like a wimp and puppet in Helsinki, as if he is hiding something and Putin knows the secret.
Trump is weak, right? No.
Notwithstanding all that, Trump has the support of his base, and it is expanding. His popularity is up, now at 45%. He has some 88% support among Republicans. He must be doing something very popular to have held onto his base amid all this.
Yes, he is. He is creating and riding a populist backlash against the current liberal Democratic message.
The Georgia vote last night confirms Georgia Republicans want someone who will fight coastal elite values, symbols, and language, and do it with pride and pugnaciousness. The Kemp message is that we Georgians are OK, in our gas guzzling trucks, our guns, our values and we don't want outsiders risking us or shaming us. It is defensive, circle-the-wagon thinking. The enemy is Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Barrack Obama, illegal immigrants, gun control advocates, and anyone who wants to say "undocumented immigrant" rather than "criminal illegals."
It is tribal. The "real American" tribe is fighting back against the new, liberal, diverse, multicultural, carefully respectful, ecologically sensitive, gun-fearing tribe.
It is tribal. The "real American" tribe is fighting back against the new, liberal, diverse, multicultural, carefully respectful, ecologically sensitive, gun-fearing tribe.
The question for Democrats is whether they back off, rethink and moderate their message to take some of the sharp edges off, for example by saying they do in fact support border security and lawful entry. Or, maybe they are confident that they are both morally right and on solid ground politically supporting with messages of "abolish ICE" and sanctuary cities.
Trump--and Kemp--have made it harder for Democrats to return to their border-enforcement policies of a decade ago. Trump and Kemp have drawn a line in the sand and Democrats will feel a loss of pride if they appear to move toward it. The Democratic left may call it out as "centrism." Bill Clinton has moved from hero to backstabber in the minds of many progressives.
Trump--and Kemp--have made it harder for Democrats to return to their border-enforcement policies of a decade ago. Trump and Kemp have drawn a line in the sand and Democrats will feel a loss of pride if they appear to move toward it. The Democratic left may call it out as "centrism." Bill Clinton has moved from hero to backstabber in the minds of many progressives.
Democrats may well have won the culture war on gays, but they have not won it on immigration. If they stand pat, then the November election showdown may take place on weak ground for Democrats: Trump saying it is a matter of safety from vicious criminals, with Democrats saying that things aren't all that bad on immigration and we should all be better to one another.
This could be a red November.
This could be a red November.
4 comments:
Nate Silver has been running some good analysis on this very topic. He points out that though trump has a very high level of popularity among Republicans, those who identify as republicans has been dropping since he took office and it’s actually at the lowest number since the party formed. So all of the articles that keep pointing to his approval among Republicans that don’t point out the disapproval among everyone else just don’t show the complete picture. Republicans account for less than 25% of registered voters at this point according to most of the numbers I’ve seen. So yes, he’s wildly popular with his base. And wildly UNPOPULAR with everyone else. When you break out approval of various actions, his unpopularity is more evident. The fact that employment is high and the economy is relatively good (wages are still low so that point is arguable for many) the overall approval numbers tend to reflect a more relaxed feeling.
You are correct in pointing out that Dems need to focus on a message. It will be about turn out and numbers. Young people are reporting that they would likely vote blue, but only 28% are saying they are registered or motivated to vote. Trump’s base is solidly in his corner. The rest - the vast majority of voters - are looking for something else.
Peter, I don't like how you and progressives have attempted to use the term "ethno-populist" (as related to Trump), which is inflammatory, and indicative of being a racist. Populists (which I am), and nationalists (which I am), don't consider ethnicity of people. There's no racism involved. The definition of a populist is: "a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people". I like representing ordinary people just like Trump, versus representing PACS (like Jessica Gomez) or elitists (like Jeff Golden and Peter Sage). The definition of a populists is: "a person who advocates political independence for a country". I accept that. I'm a nationalist like Trump (versus being a globalist). I want America to be independent. NOWHERE in the definitions of populist or nationalist indicates ethnicity, yet Peter Sage and Democrats constantly attempt to portray conservatives as racists because we believe in nationalism and are populists. The fact is that Democrats are the party of racism, and quotas, and affirmative action. Democrats use and abuse minorities. I was married to one. Trump is going to destroy whomever the Democrats run in 2020, because the economy is booming now, and the world is a safer place now than when Obama was in office, and all Democrats can do is focus on fake issues.
A couple of things, Peter. A new and solid poll yesterday had Trump's approval back down to 38% and disapproval at 58%. He continues to be hugely vulnerable to the consequences of his frequently idiotic and dangerous actions.
Regarding "backing off" on immigration: I don't think Dems should back off from support of DACA or from supporting a rational immigration system that leads to full integration into America of immigrants. I have seen prominent Dems state support for border security and certainly for lawful entry. A recent NYT poll says that 75% of Americans think immigration is good for the country, solidly in line with the Dem position.
But I'm with you on backing off--that is, going completely away--from cries for abolishing ICE. That's just red meat for the Trump base. Reforming it, yes, abolishing, no. As for sanctuary cities, there's been a good case made for not allowing federal authorities to usurp local resources to do their work.
It's all very complicated, isn't it?
Excellent and hopefully not prescient observations.
The South is fertile ground for the racist populist BS you describe, so I hesitate in applying to the nation as a whole...disheartening.
White supremacy may be achievable in the short run, but at some juncture all of America's resources will be used to defend it from the rest of the world, certainly economically, and hopefully not militarily. One by one all the social programs and protections will be dismantled to finance the military and domestic repression while a greater percentage of the population is impoverished.
What country does this look like? Hint: starts with "R"...
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