Friday, June 15, 2018

Battle of Paradigms

Trump: "I think the Mueller investigation has been totally discredited."


Chicago Tribune
The Mueller investigation is finding increasing evidence of wrong-doing close to the president.


Donald Trump has governed to sustain the support of a majority of Republicans. They want to stick with him, and he is giving them every chance to do it. Upton Sinclair made an observation that has been quoted for 80 years: "it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
The Trump base is invested in Trump, making it in effect, their salary. They are going to hear what they want to hear, believe what they want to believe. It is hard to change an opinion that people are invested in keeping.

Trump handled this mess masterfully.

Democrats appalled by Trump have a hard time understanding his persuasive talent when they are presented with it, indeed when they are being routinely beaten by it. Trump has self-inflicted disadvantages, and yet still wins the message war. People could learn from him. He is dong something effective.
KUOW News

He gave people an excuse to ignore the facts regarding Mueller revelations about his campaign and business dealings with Russians; he created a counter narrative; he gave people a target for their frustration; and he sticks to his story head held high. 

Ignore facts. Trump says there is no "objectively true" information, only politically weaponized information, so readers are free to choose what information to believe. 
Dismiss it. "Fake news" is news critical of him and his version of facts. He points to examples of errors--and there are some--and generalizes them.  

Counter-narrative. There is a conspiracy out to get him. That is the big story, not the story of alleged Trump crime, Trump says. People in the Deep State, political opponents in both parties, the Clintons, and the FBI have created the entire "witch hunt" with the evil purpose of reversing the people's choice in the 2016 election. Trump: "Comey was the leader of this whole den of thieves." It was a plot and it all fits. They are out to get me.

Bloomberg: Mueller had been the most trusted man in America
Target. Trump gives his supporters someone else to look at: Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barrack Obama, Jim Comey, Andrew McCabe. At the FBI "the top people were terrible." Look at what they have done. What about them? If someone appears to waver from the team--as did John McCain, Mark Sanford, or Trey Gowdy--then Trump or Fox blasts them as turncoats. Keep the landscape simple: good guys and bad guys.

Sticks to his story. Trump this morning summarizes the Inspector General report for viewers. Trump says the FBI has been totally discredited. There has been no collusion whatever and the FBI has been totally corrupted by its biased investigators. He stands tall. He doesn't waiver. He doesn't give an inch. He doesn't apologize or admit to anything.

Trump understands that in politics as in scientific understanding of the world, people have an operating paradigm, a sense of how the world is ordered. Either the earth is still and the sun goes around it, or the sun is in the middle and the earth rotates and revolves around the sun.  Stick to the paradigm.

The Mueller investigation had the potential of creating a powerful, dangerous message: that Trump and his campaign was corrupted by Russia or others and that he--and his election--were illegitimate. People are being indicted and people are pleading guilty. Surely something was wrong there. Or not. Maybe the whole thing was a conspiracy of evil people, backed by fake news. In that case, people get to keep the president they like and want to like.
Trump has played the long game, creating an entirely different way to see the events as they unfold: the corrupt Swamp is doing a witch hunt.

It is a battle of paradigms.  











1 comment:

Rick Millward said...

Your analysis is right on, but I continually wonder; why?

Several reasons are possible. First of all, Trump is seeking to increase his wealth, certainly for it's own sake and possibly for his daughter, the only child he shows any affection for. It's difficult to believe that there is any real ideology at work, little is heard about policy, so one might surmise that seeing the chance to win the election the decision was made that the danger from past illegal dealings was mitigated by the upside of the potential for gaining more riches and attendant power. All the tactics you list come from a need to defend himself personally, not his polices. If there is any consistency in his policy actions it has been to use government as a general scapegoat to cover his own possible crimes. Indeed, stirring up widespread opposition to immigration, environmental and economic abominations provides convenient cover.

It could be simple greed, but one can not discount megalomania. Hitler chose to ally himself with other dictators, rather than join the Western democracies, in an attempt to expand and inoculate his personal power. So is Trump. This of course is much more dangerous. Trump's followers lack the imagination to see what a world dominated by Trump, Putin, and Kim will look like. Can one man's ambitions subvert a 250 year democratic traditions and world order? We will need to put our trust in those in Congress and the military to avert this catastrophe.

Finally, and perhaps hopefully, we may be seeing the endgame of a narcissistic life spent on the brink of disaster without any grand strategy other than survival in the moment, with time running out. This seems as likely a reason as any other.