Trump as con man.

What Happened?  What is Happening?  Let's imagine what historians will think.

Fifty years from now people will be trying to figure this out and they will know how some things worked out.   Now, we have to guess.

All OK.  No worries.

Pre-War period.   It is scary to suggest it, but if things in North Korea go very, very badly, and a misapprehension/mistake is made and there is an exchange of missiles and a couple of hundred million people die in ten minutes, then we will understand this to be the calm before the storm, when everyone was in blissful ignorance, going on about their day.  December 6, 1941.  September 10, 2001.  July, 1914.   Surprises happen.

Trump is a politician who made a successful hostile takeover of the GOP.   This frame assumes no nuclear war and there is political life more or less as we know it.  Trump will be perceived as an adept--or extraordinarily lucky--political practitioner who figured out that there was a route to the White House by getting a plurality of Republican votes in the primaries, then the nomination of a major party.   He would be a successful politician.

Trump is a disaster and we are just figuring this out.  Democrats and many journalists suspect that Trump is a threat to Democracy, a figure like Aaron Burr here or Mussolini or Hitler in Europe.  It may not lead to catastrophic war or suspension of elections--or it might.  We would understand this, then, as we understand Germany in 1934-37.  Aggressive, proud, voicing race consciousness and nationalism, with an enemy within, in our case illegal immigrants of dangerous character and origin, making possible the election of what may turn out to be seen as a monster.

Agent of Change, with a brand

Trump as reality TV star symbol.  This blog has mostly taken that position.  Trump got to be well known as a big shot, a celebrity, a rich guy, a playboy, a real estate tycoon, and thank to his TV show, as an expert businessman who had the courage and decisiveness to say "You're fired!".   He was an archetype, in the right place at the right time, lined up against a candidate who was strong enough in the Democratic Party to be the inevitable candidate, but who had deep flaws that matched up poorly against Trump.  It was a professional wresting match between the big strong guy versus the weak woman who is not as nice as she pretends to be.  It assumes--as I do--that on the margins people make political decisions based on impressions and gut instincts.  People decided they didn't like Hillary and they would take a chance on the guy with the big promises and lots of self confidence.  They wanted change, and Trump was it.

Trump as successful con man.   I am grateful to Rick Millward, a frequent commenter on this blog, for that notion.  In this notion, Trump got into this as a long shot lark and a marketing ploy.  It gave him a platform for sticking a needle into Obama with the birther charge and open criticism of everything-Obama, payback for the White House Correspondents Dinner embarrassment.  He got to get up in front of crowds and get onto TV and do his schtick: sell an idea that seemed to have a market, that Obama's America was a mess and Trump was the popular solution to it.  That was a fun product to sell.

Enthusiasm is infectious and Trump had it.  Trump simply did his thing, using enjoyable and reliable brand marketing habits: the best steaks, the best water, the best hotels, him the best deal maker.  He was selling big, general promises, and he was getting great crowds, which he loved.  He was a marketer-performer doing a popular act.  And, surprisingly to him, it was working!  

There was no downside.  It was improving his brand value and it was fun.
  

The charming con man.  River City is in trouble.

He was over-selling, and he knew it, promising perfect health care, jobs for everyone, respect abroad, peace in the Middle East, capitulation from China on trade, lower taxes, lots of infrastructure spending, eliminated deficit.   As Tony Ferrell wrote here, it was pure infomercial technique: make no small promises.  
Click Here: Trump as Infomercial expert.

The "con" was that he didn't actually expect to have to build the projects he was promoting.  Hillary was expected to win.  Everyone knew it.  He could promise big rooms and low costs, the most beautiful infrastructure, coal jobs, a big, big beautiful wall, a Middle East peace deal.  He was a marketer.  His candidacy was a long shot, and winning did not seem plausible until late in the game, at which point he was all in.

Key in the literature of con-men is staying in character, selling the story, and having confederates who provide supposed third party independent credibility.  The friendly press at Fox did that for him. They served as the shill or ringer in the shell or the three card game.  A crowd gathers while they watch a supposed customer win again and again, not realizing that the "customer" is actually a partner.  Trump praises Fox and belittles as "Fake News" third party doubters.   Good co-branding opportunity for Fox.  A marketer sticks to his story.  The hotel will be beautiful.  The investors will make a fortune.  Don't believe the nay-sayers.  Believe me.

This frame assumes that Trump was primarily an opportunist with the right skill set at the right confluence of circumstances.  Americans wanted to buy what he was selling and they wanted someone to sell hard and sell big.  Trump need not be considered a "thief".  He is no worse--or better--than any used car salesman who expects to be out of business shortly and has no reason to fear customer complaints.  He is no worse than the guy who promoted Trump University.  Everyman can be a real estate tycoon.  Borrow and build.  Easy.  Pay your money and learn how.  Pay some money and get a "University" diploma.

Trump has a skill for finding willing, believing buyers.  Trump detractors hate to ascribe anything good or successful about Trump, but that blinds them to his genuine ability.  Trump believes what he is selling.  He has blustery self confidence.  He knows how to fight.  When hit, hit back hard.  Accuse, insult, undercut.

Sometimes what he sold worked out: Trump Tower.  Sometimes it didn't: Trump Taj Mahal Casino, Trump Steaks, Trump University.  He talked big, people bought, buyer beware.  Politics is just marketing and Trump was selling the sizzle.

Thanks to Rick Millward, a Medford musician and close observer of politics, who suggested this approach, in this comment:

http://rmillward.com

"Tillerson's remark [rumored to be that Trump is a moron] is a crack in the facade and can't be tolerated.

Con men maintain the con by controlling every aspect of the mark's perception. If the mark gets suspicious then the con man needs to distract him or delegitimize the source. Movies like "The Sting" and "Grifters" have scenes where the con artist has to improvise something to neutralize a threat to the elaborate ruse they are constructing. Cult leaders have much of the same MO.

The mark in this con are the Trump cultists. Trump will need to now neutralize Tillerson, who up to now has been a co-conspirator and enabler. This is why he is reported to be furious. The con has been compromised."