A Fourth of July Comment: Minority Rule

"Governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed."

The Declaration of Independence spoke to the rights of the majority of people to create new government that pleases them. The Constitution worked to create stability and guarantee the rights and power of individuals and minorities against those majorities.

Minorities can rule. And right now Trump's minority rules.

Today, July 4, we celebrate an act of rebellion in the name of democracy. But we are not governed under the Declaration of Independence. We are governed under the Constitution, which was written in large part to thwart democracy, thereby protecting us from the tyranny of the majority.

Trump has a governing plurality. Not a majority, but a plurality with governing power. Two days ago I wrote that Trump had the scornful opposition of 60% of the people but he had a solid "governing plurality" of 40%. Let me explain that.

Under the Constitution minorities have rights. The Constitution-writers distrusted democracy. Therefore, they created undemocratic chambers of power.

In the Senate all have 2 Senators. The rule protected frightened Delaware from the power of Virginia. It was a check on popular majorities dominating the small states.

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The House is undemocratic, somewhat by accident. Democrats cluster in cities. It means that Congressional Districts tend to pack Democrats into Districts they win with huge majorities, thus wasting votes. Republicans win more districts, with narrower majorities because their voters are spread more effeciently. A college classmate, political scientist Peter Lemieux, just calculated that Democrats would need to win a little over 53% of the congressional vote in order to win back a majority of the House of Representatives.

Presidency. The electoral college intentionally weights states unevenly and Trump won election notwithstanding Hillary Clinton winning 3 million more votes. Senate, House, Presidency: all undemocratic--on purpose.

The current informal but very robust system of political parties--factions, as described by James Madison in Federalist Number Ten--further serve to empower minorities and leverage their power, which is part of why they exist. Americans have settled into partisan camps. Republicans vote for Republicans, even while what the party stands for might shift dramatically. People are brand loyal, not policy loyal. A great many Americans don't vote and a great many who do are only lightly engaged. Voting for the party is a quick and easy way to synthesize how you feel. Brands are a mental shortcut, and Americans increasingly are taking it.  

Trump won some 90% of the Republican vote in November and he has consolidated that support. The 40% of the public who support Donald Trump are mostly Republicans. That is why he has a "governing plurality."

Keep "the base" happy.

He is hanging on to it.  His supporters and detractors both observe that he feeds "red meat to his base."  Trump's nomination of Neal Gorsuch, his rollback of financial and environmental regulations, his Muslim-country travel bans, his efforts to end Obamacare, his attacks on the media, and his provocative tweets all have all had a single message: I am keeping my promises to you to govern as a fearless populist conservative, as a red meat Republican, against the admonitions of the media and the politically correct expert class to be more centrist.

Trump, with his 40% and his overwhelming visibility, maintains dominance of the GOP base and brand. Ambitious Republicans who are skeptical or opposed to Trump (Kaisich, McCain, Graham, Sasse, Cruz, Rubio and many more) are careful not to cross him. Trump showed he has the power to destroy Republicans. Trump has the support of the conservative media channels that are essential to Republicans. By controlling Republicans he controls the government. Republicans have majorities, given the undemocratic makeup of those chambers.

The weak spot for Trump would be if Democrats unify as a party and create an alternative force, one that would repair the Sanders/Hillary split and then pick up the middle consisting of people offended by Trump. There is a potential majority there--anti Trumpers united--but it is a risk for Trump, not a reality. Democrats are mired in division and their only area of consensus is to "resist", a weak position. It keeps Trump on offense, it allows Trump to set the agenda, and it reaffirms the notion that everything important revolves around Trump. Democrats are nowhere near an alternative majority.

The other would be if Republicans fracture. This is the greater danger, which is why Trump is leaving no room for a Republican to challenge him. Trump is not "moving to the center" nor "becoming more presidential" nor conceding one inch that the media, or the CBO, or panels of experts are anything but discredited fakes. Skeptical Republicans with ambitions of their own are sitting back, taking tiny potshots, but not challenging Trump on anything except minor points of style. Even their criticisms of Trump's tweets go nowhere among the base. The Trump 40% love Trump's tweets just as they are because he insults people the base enjoys seeing insulted: Hollywood, MSNBC, CNN, Democrats. Trump is governing as a Republican. He is keeping that base happy.

Donald Trump is the center of attention and he leverages this to maintain a governing plurality: a solid 40% that controls a majority, which then controls a majority of the government.

Some readers will find the above commentary insufficiently upbeat and honorific for the Fourth of July. So I solicited some inspiring words by a blog reader, author and political observer Peter Rice, to serve that purpose. He is an acknowledged liberal and his most recent book is an advice book on how liberals should talk to conservatives. (Spoiler: "stop being obnoxious.") As long as Democrats and progressives generally are stuck doing "the resistance" at least they ought to do it in a way that seizes a unifying symbol, the flag.

A patriotic Fourth of July Guest Comment, by Peter Rice

"The Resistance needs a symbol. Use the flag."

It may seem like the Trump Administration has been dragging on since the beginning of time, but in fact it is still quite young, as are the organized efforts to oppose its many hard and sadistic edges.

Rice

This resistance (or whatever you wish to call it) is so young that it still operates without a uniting symbol, an easily overlooked yet very important part of any group effort for the greater good. Done right, symbols sum up the mood, and serve as a focal point around which people rally and focus attention.  

The color orange did this during the revolution in Ukraine. In 2008, it was the Obama “hope” poster. And last year, so many people rallied around a red hat that today, millions wonder if they’ll be able to afford a doctor next year. These symbol things can be powerful in an under-the-radar sort of way.

Clearly, those in the business or resisting the president’s various and sundry attacks on American values are going to need a symbol of their own. Pussy hats and clenched fists don’t quite seem unifying enough, so allow me to suggest something else: The American flag.

Alas, my fellow liberals often take a turn for the neurotic when this subject comes up. As Peter Sage pointed out over the weekend, the flag has been co-opted by some rather unsavory sorts (Republicans, mostly), and used as a focal point of needless war, militarism, and blind obedience. It’s a complicated history, but the upshot is that a good chunk of America isn’t comfortable with that uniquely American symbol.

We should get over it, if only because resisting under the flag carries some very practical benefits. Firstly, it isn’t going anywhere. You’re going to see it all the time on every street, at every school, and at every ballgame, and it would be a real shame if you identified it only with conservative causes for the rest of your life. (Think of the subtle mental health boost you would enjoy by retraining your pavlovian mind.) Secondly, nothing will bother conservatives more than to have to share the symbol with us, not least because they will be hard pressed to argue against it.

But the best reason to use the flag is that it is the perfect summation of imperfect, and yet more perfect, America. Yes, Native Americans were massacred and Japanese Americans were interned under that flag. But concentration camps were also liberated under it. Schools were forcibly integrated by people who wore it on their shoulders. We even marked one our greatest triumphs by putting a flag on the moon.

That’s us, all right - our American reality and fate. Like every flawed human being who lives in this great land, we as a people have done great harm to ourselves and to others. And for our penance, we must keep trying to make this land more free, more prosperous, more peaceful, and more united. We must dwell on our mistakes just long enough to heal and learn from them, and we must not harp on our victories so long that we lose sight of the problems yet to be solved. We are a work in progress, and if we do this right, we always will be.

The Japanese flag is the sun, the Canadians have a leaf, and the Mexicans have a classical coat of arms. We have a visual representation of e pluribus unum. The stripes are the story of where we came from, a hopeful enlightenment era kind of place that nonetheless had an obviously small-minded definition of the word “we.” And we don’t pretend otherwise: There is no stripe for the Sioux or the Cherokee.

The stars are the omega to the stripe’s alpha: A brilliant shining collection that has changed quite a bit over the years, and few would be surprised if another star or two joined the club in the coming decades.

So our flag is more than a symbol: It is a refreshingly honest dashboard of human freedom. It is a catalog of our complicated and contradictory history. It knows us. It is us. And as we think of clever ways to get out of this present mess, it would be a true shame to leave this old friend behind. Those stars represent us all today, and they can yet shine brighter.

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Peter Rice is the author of Liberal for Conservative Reasons: How to stop being obnoxious and start winning elections, which is available on Amazon. Contact him through peterbrice.com.