It's not the crime, it's the coverup

Even Fox News is talking about it, not as a crazy Democratic sore-loserism, but as Trump having brought this on himself.

Even Fox News treated it as a legitimate problem.

It was an investigation in search of a nonexistent crime of direct Trump collusion with the Russians to encourage or enable rigging of the American presidential election. 

 But obstructing that probe is a crime and Trump may have done so.  Proudly.

Trump may be in trouble because his campaign ally, Michael Flynn, may well be guilty of in fact colluding with Russians, or at least having done something that would reflect badly on him.   Flynn knows it, which is why he lawyered up and said he wants immunity.  Trump knows it or fears it.  Trump wanted to shut down investigation into Michael Flynn.

Character is destiny.  Trump did what Trump does: he doubled down.  He didn't minimize or carefully parse his words when he said why he fired James Comey.  He was given the opportunity to pass it off as him having taken advice from the Assistant Attorney General.  But taking advice from subordinates is not the Trump brand.   

Proud Trump:  I fired Flynn to stop the witch hunt.

The Trump brand is to be the strong, decisive leader. Trump boldly told NBC's Lester Holt that he made the decision and he did it to shut down a "witch hunt" investigation into his campaign.   

Trump announced the same thing as Nixon did quietly behind closed doors, but was caught on tape and revealed.  That was the "smoking gun."

The saving grace for Trump is Trump's very manner.   Trump wasn't shy about it.  Trump was Trump, bold and decisive and unapologetic.  The public is attuned to a politician lying through weasel-words and lawyered-up minimization. The message received is that the politician is attempting to get away with something.  But when someone proudly announces it then--as we receive the message--it might be incorrect,  but it isn't bad.   Trump isn't feeling guilty.  He must be doing his best.  Therefore, it cannot be a high crime or misdemeanor.  It's just Trump trying to do his job.

Nixon lost GOP support.

The key to this is whether Trump can sell it to enough people to give Republican officeholders cover.  Whether it is illegal or not is of little consequence.   When Clinton dishonestly minimized his contact with Monica Lewinsky under oath he committed a crime.  It justifies impeachment if the public thinks it justifies impeachment.   Clinton remained popular with a great many people so Republicans impeached and Democrats said to slap him on the wrist and to move on.   Trump needs to hold his base, allowing Republicans perhaps to agree that Trump was intemperate in trying to shut down the investigation and used careless language, but it was all done in an effort to end a distraction and refocus the country on bringing jobs to America.  Move on.

Prediction:  Trump will escape this trap.  The GOP officeholders want Trump to survive.   But it might be out of his control because outside events or revelations might change the message.   Trouble might come from several directions.

  *** He might go ahead and fire Robert Mueller and ignore the feedback from the trial balloon,  which might trigger another Saturday Night Massacre.  This would embarrass Republican Senators and they would have to scramble mentally to figure a way to excuse this.

The Good Soldier

   ***Michael Flynn might become a hostile witness reporting that he and Trump had spoken and that Trump had given a go-ahead to something unsavory.   (I do not expect this.  Flynn is a partisan and a soldier.  He will want to stick with his team.  Besides, Trump has made clear Trump has his back.)

   ***Investigators may find Flynn did something illegal or unsavory while he was actively campaigning for Trump, forcing Trump to admit that his campaign erred, and he was protecting his campaign.  (This is what caught Richard Nixon.  He was trying to shut down an investigation into his campaign's act of burglary.)  

 *** Russians might have something illegal or unsavory on Flynn and decide it is in their interest to reveal it, having concluded that a weak Trump mired in scandal weakens the US and would give them more bargaining power.  (I do not expect this.  A Trump in trouble for misdeeds with  Russia would tend to force Trump to be harder on them to prove his independence.  Better to have Trump worried than endangered.  A cornered animal is especially dangerous.)

Conservative press: From Fortune Magazine

Something fundamental has changed in the past two or three days.  The story changed from what really happened regarding contacts between the campaign and the Russians to whether or not Trump improperly tried to cover it up, and what was being covered up became more threatening.  Russia apparently attempted to mess with voter records, hoping to disrupt election day with mismatched names and addresses, creating election day chaos.  Americans seemed willing to accept the notion that Russian propaganda and fake stories on Facebook messed with our opinions.  After all, Americans circulated those fake stories because they seemed plausible and it was Americans doing what Americans are free to do, exercise free speech.  But the attack onstates' voter records to disrupt election day reads like a physical attack.  Now the Russian threat seems dangerous.   

If Trump's campaign was friendly with people who changed voter records--and maybe they were--then this investigation is looking into something serious and Trump's having tried to cover things up feels different.  It feels like a high crime or misdemeanor.  

                                                        ---      ---      ---