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| Trump is doing what he said he would do: change things |
Forget Impeachment. Worry about Re-Election.
It was the best of times. Progressives are jubilant. MSNBC ratings are up.
Trump openly admitted obstructing justice on camera. Trump blurted top secret information to the Russians. The White House is under investigation. The FBI chief made contemporaneous notes of presidential misbehavior. Does it get any better than this?
Trump openly admitted obstructing justice on camera. Trump blurted top secret information to the Russians. The White House is under investigation. The FBI chief made contemporaneous notes of presidential misbehavior. Does it get any better than this?
This is not a disaster for Trump. Trump's base voters don't believe what they hear and they like what they see.
Remember the Trump brand. Trump represented rapid and dramatic change. Trump was elected to shake things up, and that is what he is doing. Democrats are thinking that President Trump must have wanted to project a tone of calm, competent executive management, in which case the events of the past week would have been a disaster, but since his brand was to shake thing up everything that is happening now confirms exactly what he voters expected. The idea that the TV Networks and the NY Times and the constitutional fussbudgets are all upset is a positive. Indeed, if they were happy and said that Trump had "matured" or "become presidential" that would have been the betrayal.
Trump is confirming his brand. He is showing he didn't cave in or sell out. It is the worst of times for progressives--unless and until he does something that actually undermines his brand. Making nice with the Saudis is more likely to hurt him than admitting he told the FBI to stop investigating him, and Trump understands this. The key thing to notice was not that he fired FBI Director Comey to stop the FBI's investigation of him; instead the key things is that he said it proudly and boldly on camera.
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| No drama |
This would include Greg Walden, the congressman from my own district. His own message is continuity and "no drama", the opposite of the Trump brand. He is the incumbent and doesn't want the political order "shaken up." He is in a place of power.
So are other legislative leaders, and it is especially true of slow, mild, methodical. Indeed, his appearance and manner are so mild that he is mocked by comedians for being turtle-like.
Meanwhile, Thad Guyer briefly left his political view spot in Vietnam to do a field report on conversations real people in swing state Florida. His observations are in line with my reading of the situation. Trump is doing fine.
“Field Report: Trump Safe with his Voters”
Trump is safe with his voters, and Republicans thus far a
safe as well with their voters. The
Trump scandals have not even moved the needle with Republican voters. On the weekend I attended a mini-class
reunion for the North Miami High Class of 68, and those are my findings.
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| Thad Guyer |
The current media firestorm on Trump scandals does not move
the needle against Trump with any of the Republicans. All 10 of us think the
mainstream media is unreliable, exaggerated, and has been out to get Trump from
the start. We all view the steady
reporting of “new revelations” by anonymous sources to be unreliable, and the
seven Republicans see it as irrelevant to any important issue facing the
country. 8 of the 10 of us think that
FoxNews basically has the right balance in reporting the scandal, i.e., voters
should pay attention, but there is so far very little of substance there.
None of the 7 Republicans would vote for a Democrat in the
midterms, and certainly not based on Obamacare repeal, which affects none of
them or anyone they know. Indeed, 8 of the 10 of us have no more interest in
the 2018 midterms than in any other midterm in memory. All 7 Republicans said they will go vote
Republican as a way of supporting Trump, and 2 of the three Democrats said they
may or may not vote at all.
If this group is representative of white males in the
country at large, then Trump and Republicans look secure to me.
2 comments:
Give him time. It's a long time until the mid-terms. He will do something huge and crazy. I don't know what, but it will happen. Just give him a chance. Then things could change.
Interesting, though I think the sample is a bit skewed. White Southern Regressive boomers are a hard hearted bunch, victims of the spare the rod mentality and still fighting the Civil War, like those Japanese soldiers in the the Pacific island jungles.
The difference between Trump rhetoric and reality is still playing out, and it appears that an increasingly passive aggressive Congress will keep the more destructive inclinations at bay. One thing seems clear: they will likely stall any major domestic demolition so that the effects won't be felt until after the midterms, blunting Progressive opposition and making turnout and compelling candidates essential.
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