Showdown Coming! Trump's Will vs. Legislative Process

Donald Trump won the electoral vote.  Americans chose bold decisive change over careful process.

Now we have the showdown: Can Trump deliver bold, decisive change?

In the next two weeks we will see which way the Republican congress plays it and which way Trump plays it.  

Trump campaigned on ending the ACA on "Day One."   What actually will happen sends an important signal on whether Trump was actually a change agent or whether he was just hot air.    Republican consensus to do something dramatic on Day One has disappeared.  Repeal without replacement will create a health care disaster and a fiscal one.   Obamacare does not cost money; it saves money.  And Republicans are on notice that if they create a mess Democrats will make sure the public knows it is their mess.

"Cries to Slow Down"

Republicans have a problem.   They convinced the public that Obamacare is terrible and that they will get rid of it, but in fact voters like everything about it except the part of it that makes it work--the individual mandate to get coverage.   The Obamacare format was the Republican and Heritage Foundation alternative to a single-payer Medicare for All.

"We need to slow down the process. . . . "

Currently six Republican members of the Senate have said they want to find a replacement before repealing the ACA. Now the Freedom Caucus of about 45 Republican House members say they, too, want to know what the replacement might be before they repeal Obamacare.   The legislative majority for bold, decisive action has disappeared.   The legislators don't want a mess, they don't want to be blamed for a mess, and they don't want a budget busting cost increase that would put pressure on other parts of the budget they want.   

Senators and House members were elected to exercise their own judgement, not just to rubber stamp what the President says.   They have had eight years practice opposing a president and they know how to do it.

Alternative paths:   

This is the bold strike that is Trump's brand

1.  Trump force of will prevails.  Trump can demand that they act now, putting pressure on Speaker Ryan to get control of his caucus and the Freedom Caucus to take bold action of repeal assuring everyone that "something great" can be created later.  The Freedom Caucus has experience confounding Boehner previously and Ryan currently, but the caucus is more aligned with the Trump and talk radio Tea Party style Republican than is the House generally so they may go along, to please Trump, not Ryan.   The Senate will be harder to budge.  Senators are not team players in the way House members must be.  Trump might attempt to get a few Democratic votes to get to his fifty, but the problem for Trump is that voting to know what we are getting versus voting for a pig in a poke is a safe position politically.  But Trump might frighten people into voting for repeal.  This would be a big Trump win and a signal that he is changing Washington.  

This works best if there is some kind of Obamacare-lite program re-instituted while actually maintaining Obamacare through the 2018 election so blame for the problems are confusing and widespread.  This is repeal and delay, along with a declaration of victory.

Governing is hard

2.  Checks and balances and inertia and caution prevail.  In this scenario Republicans are more afraid of creating chaos and endless headlines about their inability to govern well if the healthcare system goes back to the pre-Obamacare situation with expensive emergency room usage, rural hospitals going bankrupt, individuals with pre-existing conditions being stuck, and widespread personal bankruptcies in the news.  The pre-Obamacare system was a failure which is why Obamacare was instituted.   Trump might complain bitterly at the do-nothing Congress.  In this alternative Trump is revealed for being weak, relations between Trump and the Congress get worse, and both sides lose status and power.  News stories describe GOP failure right out of the starting gate.

3. Trump goes with the flow, and claims he welcomes Congressional caution and deliberation.   I consider this the most likely outcome, and it starts with the premise that Trump is, in fact, a careful strategist and steward of his own reputation.  Trump's ideal would be Alternative 1, but if the votes are not there then alternative 2 would be a disaster.   Trump's power comes from his reputation for winning and crushing opposition.  If he can be defied then not only did Trump lose that battle he loses the power of fear for subsequent battles.  Trump knows he must not allow himself to look like he can be defied.  The result is Trump will publicly pretend to welcome the defiance, indeed say he demanded it since he wants the replacement to be terrific.

This alternative is less than ideal for Trump because it would validate that he shares power, which means his power to intimidate going forward is dramatically less. 

What will Trump do?   The history of the campaign sends a mixed signal.   Trump's style has been to double down and insist and it has generally worked for him.  Trump as a steamroller is the preferred Trump style.  But Trump has also sent the signal that he is astute and he is willing to change positions instantly if the situation changes.  A negotiator looks for the the best deal possible, and Trump has every ability to claim victory for a less than ideal outcome.  The key is to be able to declare victory.