Iran won.

What will we know for sure about what President Trump called "the little excursion in Iran?"

There will be disagreements about the Iran Memo of Understanding and eventual peace settlement.

I expect to be lied to by both sides. 

Here is what I think we know for sure:

--  We didn't get regime change in Iran. The same team is in place, but now with younger people with a fresh sense of national purpose and pride.

--  The bombing of the girls school and the death of 100-plus schoolgirls will not go away. A hundred years from now Iranians will remember that we bombed a school for girls. 

--  As with Obama's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the eventual Trump nuclear deal will leave Iran wanting to get nuclear material. The technology is available. But they have learned that they have something better than a nuclear bomb, which would invite nuclear retaliation: They can hold the world's economy hostage by threatening the Strait of Hormuz.

--  Before the start of the war on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was an international waterway, with free passage for everyone. Now the Iran and Oman control the strait, and we are negotiating to have it be free of Iranian tolls, while Iran is negotiating to regulate them with administrative and environmental fees. 

--  Before the start of the war the U.S. was the security guarantor for the oil-rich countries of the region. We had a deal with them: They trade in petrodollars and keep oil flowing to the world; we keep safe their glass cities, luxury hotels, hedge fund headquarters, and energy infrastructure. That is over. The war proved we cannot protect them. The protection comes from making cooperation arrangements with Iran. 

--  The U.S. military is huge, but ineffective. The weapon systems of World War II and the Cold War are obsolete. A thousand drones at $10 million are more effective than one aircraft carrier at $5 billion. And you don't need to sink the aircraft carrier. You just have to scare the insurance companies that insure oil tankers.

--  The U.S. burned its allies with insults and trade wars, so it does not lead a coalition of democracies. When it really counts, the U.S. is on its own.

--  The U.S. got led by Israel and is now scrambling to unwind the mess it got itself into. Israel has become a political liability. U.S. hawks on behalf of Israel have been discredited. Even Trump is abandoning them, and no credible American politician will try to replace Trump as a full-throated champion of Israel. 

--  The U.S. has a glass jaw militarily. The way for supposed small powers and middle powers to end wars with the U.S. on favorable terms is to cause political distress for the president. The weak spot for the U.S. is the next election. 

--  President Trump and conservative media will call this a tremendous victory for Trump and the USA.

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