The U.S. has a glass jaw.
Voters are impatient and unhappy with the price of gasoline.
Trump wants out of Iran. He wants to declare victory now.
"I think its close to over. I view it as very close to over."
Democrats are giddy with the prospect that the Trump era is ending. Democrats are counting the blue-wave midterm election chickens before they hatch, but it is too much fun to resist.
The war with Iran is unpopular, and Trump knows it. He is on deadline. He needs us to be out of Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz open and oil shipping back to pre-war status, and gasoline prices back to where they were two months ago -- $3 and $3.50 in most of the country.
A Republican senator has taken on a hard task, telling Americans to be happy with higher prices, that it is worth it.
Trump takes a smarter approach, telling voters it will be over soon.
Iran can take a punch and keep hitting. What is left of Iran’s government took the world’s economy hostage. They shut down the Strait of Hormuz, letting only their friends pass through and demanded a toll.
Trump is forced to play bad cards. Trump could not open the Hormuz toll road, so he needed to close it completely, making worse the oil disruption. Petroleum is a notoriously inelastic commodity. Prices must move up a lot to suppress demand enough to bring it back in balance with supply.
High oil prices mean high prices at the pump. Pew Research Center polling showed that gasoline prices were more important to Americans than the prospect of sending ground troops to Iran or the prospect of large numbers of American casualties. That is the American glass jaw.
Trump understands his political peril. Whatever incomplete shambles he leaves in Iran will not stop him from claiming the war is over and was a HUGE success. But that is possible only if gasoline and diesel prices are down. Trump has six months to abandon Iran and let Iran have the strait, so long as shipping is restored. Israel cares about the Iran project. Trump doesn’t.
The real question is whether Democrats will understand their peril. Democrats prioritize climate as an issue. Democrats consider abundant oil at low cost to be a problem. Democrats are conflicted. They understand that talk of “affordability” is good politics, and that gasoline prices at the retail pump should be low. But Democratic messaging is that petroleum is drilled, fracked, pumped, and transported in ways that they oppose. The companies that do that work are scorned. “Divest from oil companies” and “Windfall taxes on oil companies “ are applause lines at Democratic events. Somehow, the oil companies that supply filling stations with an essential product are very bad, but the consumers who buy that product and who want it available and cheap are good. Yes, Democrats are conflicted.
U.S. Senator Sen. Ruben Gallego (D- AZ), who is sometimes named as a potential Democratic nominee for president since he is popular, not too old, and was elected in a swing state, described the conundrum for Democrats who talk about climate instead of energy abundance. He said that working men, the voters Democrats need to win back, want to be able to drive a “big ass truck.” The blue state Democratic climate message -- ban drilling, ban pipelines, ban fracking, divest from oil companies -- what Democrats say to win a primary election, is what will allow Trump regain support. Democratic primary-voting activists are out of touch with voters they want back. No more blue wave without those voters.
By November, Trump can be the cheap-gasoline candidate again if he manages to get himself out of Iran and the strait reopened. GOP ads will be showing images of gasoline station prices again.
What can Democrats do? Must they cave on the climate issue? Can Democrats convince Americans that reduced petroleum production and refinement is a worthwhile cost to pay to protect the climate?
No they cannot and neither can that Republican senator. Americans want what they can afford. Americans are who we are. Less is not more. More is more. It is an aspirational message and Democrats should not be afraid of it.
Democrats need to make a choice. The U.S. is in a two-decade period of rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables. It is happening because of price, not moral suasion. Technology is the Democrats’ friend. Renewable wind and solar are cheaper than fossil fuels, especially if Democrats will allow them to be sited. Natural gas -- a compromise fuel -- is far cheaper and cleaner than coal. A Democrat can make a virtue of the transition underway and lean into it. Praise it. If Democrats try to make a virtue of “less” they elect Trump and people like him.
Americans want cheap abundant energy. The Democratic challenge is to give it to them.
[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog by email go to Https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]
As someone who lived in a petroleum state, Alaska, I don’t get the anti oil slant. Not allowing drilling in the middle of nowhere in Alaska made independent minded voters go republican. We need oil, wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power to feed the AI automation.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime will Iran want peace even if Trump does? We bombed the crap out of them, killed their children, and oh that’s right killed, the dad of who now the leader. If I was Iran, I would keep the straight closed.
God forbid that Coos Bay/North Bend should have an LNG terminal. Let's instead make hospitals and casinos the profit centers in that part of Oregon. (Apologies to Bandon Dunes; I guess tourism counts, but compared to LNG?!)
ReplyDeleteElite urban liberals seem to want the only livelihood for rural people to be as obsequious hosts for those liberals when they want to vacation someplace scenic.
DeleteA Canadian company wants to use “eminent domain” to confiscate public and private lands and put a 36-inch-diameter pipeline through Oregon in order to export LNG overseas. Based on U.S. data, there are an average of nearly 300 significant natural gas pipeline incidents – including explosions, fires and leaks – per year. Why would anybody think that’s a good idea?
DeleteYou must be kidding. The Coquille Tribe couldn't make a go of it in just North Bend, and now they also have a casino in Medford. Casinos aren't profit centers. They are places where low income people get ripped-off and go bankrupt. Casinos haven't helped the Tribes, whose members live in poverty.
DeleteIran can take a punch and keep hitting.
ReplyDeleteThat’s because Iran is a muqawamah regime. Muqawamah is a jihadist Islamic doctrine that says the most important thing is to destroy your enemies, even at the cost of your own welfare. One expression of it is this quote from Ayatollah Khomeini,, the founder of the Islamic state of Iran:
“We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land [Iran] burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.”
― Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
As was also the case with Hamas and the civilian inhabitants of Gaza, the Iranian regime does not give a damn about the fate of its citizens. The point is to destroy the West, starting with Israel and then moving on to Europe and the United States. If Iran has to burn in the process, that’s fine with them.
And that’s why Iran can take a punch.
Conspicuously absent from the politically-informed energy discussion here is nuclear. One can't drive an hour in almost any direction in Western Europe without seeing a cooling tower. Democrats still have hard-wired, old-school Green visions from Three Mile Island and "The China Syndrome". Meanwhile, China is yet expanding its coal consumption. Methinks this war will not rise and fall over energy. Boredom and impatience are more likely.
ReplyDeleteMutually-assisted delusion? Trump told Bartiromo that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly". Youbetcha. Well, a death pact, perhaps...
Iran is a corrupt regime that lies a lot, but so is Israel and the U.S. We can’t trust what any of them tell, but it’s looks unlikely that Trump will be making a deal that brings down gas prices in time for the midterms. So far he’s blown a bunch of stuff up for well over $50 billion and all we’ve gotten out of it is $4 to $5 per gallon gas. It’s too bad that’s all Americans seem to care about but if Democrats can’t capitalize on this, they don’t belong in power.
ReplyDeleteJust a caution: boots on the ground in Iran would be a dream come true for Iran’s leaders.
ReplyDeleteMost people alive today don’t remember the U.S. hostages held in Tehran. Or look at how Hamas milked the anguish of Israeli families, extracting huge prisoner exchanges and tribute for one or two hostages at a time. Iran would use the same playbook on live TV, likely including threats of executions or beheadings if their demands weren’t met.
We have no reliable allies lined up and our supply lines would be badly stretched. There’s an old warning for a reason: don’t get involved in a land war in Asia.
Thinking in simple monetary terms, this misadventure with Iran has so far cost each registered voter $200 of their tax dollars. Add at least $50 more out of pocket for the tank per week for 6 weeks (so far) =$300. So over $500 per household….and counting. And that doesn’t include other costs. “We’ll win so much we’ll get tired of winning”. Yay warmongers.
ReplyDeleteI noticed a chewy little nugget yesterday morning that Peter dropped in this piece and wondered if anyone would dare to comment on it, and, predictably so, not a peep.
ReplyDelete"U.S. Senator Sen. Ruben Gallego (D- AZ), who is sometimes named as a potential Democratic nominee for president since he is popular, not too old, and was elected in a swing state..."
...and a very close associate of Eric Swalwell. ...tisk tisk...
Good one Peter. It went right over their heads
....I'll wait for the oh so predictable responses.