Report from Mexico, in the aftermath of the Venezuelan incursion

Trump tariffs, tough talk, and invasion of Venezuela are having an unexpected effect on Mexico.

Mexican exports to the U.S. are up, the Mexican peso has climbed against the dollar, and the Mexican president is getting more popular because she is standing up to Trump.

Erich Almasy and his wife Cynthia Blanton are college classmates. They are expats, living happily in Mexico. Erich sends this report from their home in San Miguel de Allende. They have "gone native" enough to have written a guidebook to Mexican foods.

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Photos are of Cynthia and Erich, costumed for the Day of the Dead.

Guest Post by Erich Almasy

Se rumorea en la calle (Heard on the street)

January 6th was Epiphany for most of the Orthodox Christian world, celebrating the baptism of Jesus. In México, it was Día de Reyes (Kings’ Day), celebrating the arrival of the Magi (Melchor, Caspar, and Balthazar), who, following the Star of Bethlehem, brought gifts to the baby Jesus. On Monday night, children in México put out their shoes and the next morning find gifts inside. Everywhere, people were feasting on Rosca de Reyes (Wreath of the Kings), the circular fruitcake that contains a porcelain figurine of one of the Magi or of the baby Jesus.

Wreath of the kings

Figures hidden in the cake

Trump’s “visit” to Venezuela has produced much discussion here. Among the gringo residents, there is concern about anti-American sentiment. A notification from the U.S. Department of State warned, “A protest denouncing U.S. actions against Venezuela continues to take place in front of the U.S. Embassy in the Polanco neighborhood of Mexico City. Protestors have thrown rocks and painted vandalism on exterior walls.” The United States has invaded Mexico on several occasions, one in 1914, when the U.S. Marines occupied the city of Veracruz for several months. This is referenced in the Marine Hymn, as the “Halls of Montezuma.” Again, in 1916, American General “Black” Jack Pershing and a small army chased Pancho Villa through northern México in a futile effort to bring him to justice. For Mexicans, the looming American behemoth is always viewed in two lights—benevolent as an investor, giant export market, and home to emigrant relatives. The other side of the centavo is the potential despot, who increasingly appears belligerent toward the brown people of Central and South America.

Following the kidnapping of Venezuela President Maduro, on January 3rd México’s President Claudia Sheinbaum sent out a tweet that stated that all UN members "shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state." She reiterated México’s foreign policy of non-intervention and asked that the United Nations take a role in resolving the situation. México’s President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized oil here in 1938, and many Mexicans still believe the United States will respond. They have seen the trade agreement called NAFTA, established in 1994 renamed USMCA in 2020 during Trump’s first term, and now essentially dissolved at Trump’s whim this past summer. Despite the uncertainty, México’s exports to the United States totaled $504 billion in 2024 and are projected to exceed $700 billion in 2026, surpassing China’s exports to the United States. Tariffs on the rest of the world boosted México’s economy and helped the peso gain 13 percent in value against the United States dollar during 2025. While a stronger peso may seem a blessing for local people, it decreases the value of remittances that Mexican families in the United States send to their relatives back home. Added to that injury is this insult: As of January 1, recipients in México, Bangladesh, India, and the Caribbean must also pay a 1 percent excise tax. Gringos in México use bank transfers and debit transactions and are not subject to the excise tax.

Local people here are once again wearing facemasks (without a formal mandate) against what promises to be a virulent flu and COVID season. Our local government clinic provided us free pneumococcal, flu, and COVID boosters. The line was filled with mothers carrying young babies because people here believe in science and vaccines. In the 1900s, life expectancy in México was less than 30 years. By 2023, that number had reached over 75 years and continues to increase. Presently, the United States has a life expectancy of just over 76 years.

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