Friday, October 20, 2023

Vineyard: End of growing season.

Summer is ending.

The days are shorter than the nights. 

Yesterday was a long travel day. In the morning I was visiting with Chris Christie in Concord, New Hampshire. Mid-day I was dealing with Boston traffic around Logan Airport. Last night I was back in Medford.

I return my attention to the vineyard.

Before I left for New Hampshire I gave my little grape plants their final drink of water for the season and took some photos of the field. Look closely at the black tube about 18 inches high over the ground. A steady drip of water is coming from it. I left it on for two hours -- about a gallon of water on the plant itself, and another gallon on either side of it. The spots under the drips come together to make a continuous irrigated strip below the rows of grapes once the water seeps in.


Most Southern Oregon agriculture requires summer irrigation. My pumice soil is very fine-grained. It drains well -- perhaps too well. It is the consistency of ground sugar and sometimes powdered sugar, which means that even the tiniest of weed seeds start growing right after a rain. The rain two weeks ago, then the warm days, brought up a carpet of tiny weeds. I got right on it just before I left for New Hampshire. 

Readers who farm and garden will understand my sense of contented satisfaction as I put my vineyard to bed for the winter. I wanted a "clean field" i.e. one free of weeds. My father warned about procrastination: The weed you don't pull today will be bigger tomorrow. He also said that there are moments when you can do things -- cut hay, plant melons, pick melons, kill weeds -- and you need to do it then. I had a time window to till up the carpet of tiny weeds when the soil dried out in the two 90-degree days just before I left. It is a clean field, except for the tiny strip alongside the grape plants that the tiller cannot reach.

The green visible next to the white grow tubes are weeds. I will hoe them when I get out  to the vineyard later this morning. As my father warned, they will be bigger than when I photographed this 13 days ago. 


In a photo looking down the rows there appears to be 100% plant survival.  With close plant-by-plant inspection I found one or two missing plants per 100 among the bare-root plants in the Cabernet Sauvignons and the Malbecs. Some of the Pinot Noir plants came from the nursery as live-root grafts, with weak, dangling roots. Many of those didn't make it -- about 10% loss -- and I will need to replant next May. 

I got a little damage from this worm -- a cutworm-- on the corner of the field that gets shade in the late afternoon. The worm is brown and huge -- the size and shape of my little finger. I put it on a dirt clod to photograph it -- a poor choice of background since it doesn't have color contrast. It is voracious and loves young leaves.


I sprayed the exposed leaves of the affected plants with a plant-safe pesticide, Sevin, which might stop the damage. I presume that the first hard freeze will kill the worm, but I will need to watch closely for this. Its eggs will survive the winter in the ground.

This experiment in grape-growing appears successful so far. It involved hard physical work for me. I lost 40 pounds between March and August. 


People who have raised infants will understand the feeling of relief and contentment at this moment in the season.  I am putting the field down after a busy summer. After a busy day watching, feeding, and diapering, a parent watches the baby doze off, ready for bed. The baby is worn out and so is the parent. 

Whew.

But, of course, the "Whew" may not last. The baby might wake up and start crying, and one is back on duty. At the vineyard there could be some unexpected problem with frost, diseases, pests, wind, hail, something. There is always something. A farmer's work is never done.



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Thursday, October 19, 2023

No comment.

 This is Donald Trump.


Click: Watch for a minute



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I suspect Tim Scott will be dropping out

New Hampshire viewers of Fox News get innundated with GOP candidate commercials. Including Tim Scott's. 

That is ending for Scott. His PAC is pulling his ads.

Democrats might presume Tim Scott's black skin means that Republican voters are never going to take him serously as a candidate. Democrats have it backwards. Scott's race and origin story are positives for him.

Tim Scott has a modern  "log cabin" story. He is a Black conservative. He adopted the views and attitudes of the respectable majority culture. His predictable, down-the-line positions are affirmation for White conservatives. Scott "fits in." He doesn't criticize Trump. He is a pro-business, jobs-oriented, tax-cutting, Chamber of Commerce old-style Republican. He says Hamas is bad, that we should be energy dominent, that we should cut corporate and individual taxes while also cutting the deficit. He isn't edgy or new. Qute the opposite. 

He had a brief period when Republican donors and pundits thought this well-rounded candidate would be the favored alternative to Trump and DeSantis. They thought he could make inroads in Georgia and other crossover states. His race and story were the "little extra" Scott brought to the campain. It made sense on paper.

He is lost in the scrum, polling near zero. He is serving up healthy "comfort food" to a primary electorate that has gotten accustomed to a diet of Halloween candy.

Except he says one important, interesting, controversial thing. He condemned Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty. He didn't complain about its cost or that it was a give-away. He said it was a disaster for Black Americans because it destroyed Black families. Great Society means-testing conditioned assistance to poor women and children on there not being a man in the house. So men left. That destroyed marriages and normalized a culture of children being raised by unpartnered, unwed women. That is a powerful critique, raising serious policy implications for needs-based social programs. His identity and history give him special insight and license to voice this critique, but after a brief mention he moved on to other things. His brand is safe thoughts, not a policy criticism.

His PAC was a prodigious money-raiser. The NH Leadership Summit had a Scott PAC table. That's right: He was represented by his PAC. They had free merchandise. A PAC tee shirt is a strange, uniquely worthless, campaign expenditure. They were offered free and in quantity, if one wished to advertise a PAC. No one wore one. No one else took one. I wanted the photo.


If Republican primary voters want an earnest, low-key pious candidate -- and they don't --  they have the opportunity of choosing Pence or Burgum or Hutchison. But they aren't getting traction, either. 

Apparently Scott's campaign financing is being managed by a third party, and they see the handwriting. Besides, Scott has a senate job to get back to.



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Wednesday, October 18, 2023

The Jim Jordan problem.

U.S. Representative Lori Cheves-DeRemer is between a rock and a hard place.

She was one of the 20 holdouts -- the GOP Representatives who did not support Jim Jordan.

The rock is the need for a Speaker.

The hard place is that if Jim Jordan is made Speaker she will be voted out of office.


Lori Chavez-DeRemer represents an Oregon Congressional District that voted for Biden 55-43%. The District is a mix of upscale suburbs of Portland plus rural areas leading toward the prosperous, now-Democratic city of Bend. Democrats were in charge of drawing Congressional District lines in Oregon. They did a credible job of creating Districts where Republicans had good chances of winning if they fielded moderate candidates. In the case of Oregon's 5th, the conservative Democratic incumbent lost his primary to a Democrat who had support from progressives in the party. Amid that internal trouble among Democrats, Republican Chavez-DeRemer squeaked out a victory, 51-49%.

She is vulnerable. She is scrambling to hold the seat. She has already banked $1.3 million for her campaign, far out-raising all three Democratic opponents vying to replace her, including the woman she narrowly beat, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is back for another try. Speaker Jordan would be a huge problem for Chavez-DeRemer. He is still an election denier. He led government shutdowns. He defied a House subpoena to testify about Trump's conversations with him on January 6. He wants a national abortion ban. Former Republican Speaker John Boehner calls him a "legislative terrorist." He owes his Speakership to the Marjorie Taylor Green-Matt Gaetz-Lauren Boebert faction of the GOP.

No doubt Jim Jordan would help her raise money if she gets on board, but money won't help her if she is tagged as an extremist. She voted for McCarthy yesterday as a way to withhold her vote from Jordan. The pressure is on her from Jordan, House colleagues, and conservative media hosts.  X, formerly Twitter, contains posts urging people to "light up her phone" telling her to support Jordan. Jordan can plead and bully but Republicans in blue and purple Districts see the peril. She might survive if she can position herself as a bipartisan moderate busy doing the people's business in the House -- but not if she is on record as a MAGA collaborator.

Today is a moment of truth. 

She posted a big explanation on X. It says the right thing, but the very fact that she needs to say it shows how bad a spot she is in. Trump and Jordan have the big megaphone. If Jordan runs the House he will define her. It is hard for a junior Member of Congress to carve out a separate brand that anyone would notice. 

Unless. Unless she does something big, with the body language of a hugely consequential vote sticking with a small group that denies Jim Jordan the Speakership. Possibly that group of 20 could go another step and be the core for a bipartisan coalition to lead Congress. That would get noticed.

It is still unlikely, but it is more possible now than it was a week ago. I don't expect it. At crucial decision points the GOP has repeatedly chosen its MAGA base, not its dwindling centrists. But the 20 may surprise us. It would be the unmistakable body-language action that might save her seat.

Here's what she wrote:




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Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Trump's bad week. Biden's good one.

The 2024 GOP nomination isn't over.

If this were a movie, the music would be speeding up and the beat would be louder. The plot is taking a turn.

I am spending a week among partisan Republicans. A majority of Republican voters support Trump. Trump supporters recognize he is controversial, but are not convinced he deserves to be. A majority of people I have talked with think he is being picked on. They think Democrats plotted to get non-citizens or dead people to vote. They think Trump had every right to suspect there were suitcases of fake ballots. I heard from people staffing tables for Trump who were utterly convinced the rioters in the January 6 crowd were Democrats in disguise. 

GOP partisans desperately want to support their guy, so they dismiss inconvenient thoughts. They do exactly what Biden tells Democrats to do: Don't compare me with the Almighty; compare me with the alternative. Republican partisans consider Biden to be dangerous. They imagine him to share the politics of Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They think Biden to be as dangerous as the non-Trump 55-60% of Americans consider Trump.

Events are closing in. GOP candidates are sharpening their criticism. Trump is flailing and screwing up. He is giving off a new vibe: Manic desperation.

Trump has my email address, as do tens of millions of others. I received by actual count 12 different emails to my gmail address from Trump yesterday. Twelve in one day. One or two emails suggest relentlessness. Twelve is crazy. They come with hyperbolic headlines. He sounds panicky. "GAG ORDER!!!" and "DON'T ABANDON ME, PATRIOT!!"

Trump made an "unforced error" in his comments on Israel and Hamas. He gave opponents an opening. Republicans are clear that Israel is a victim and the good guy deserving unqualified support. Trump called Hamas "smart." He criticized Netanyahu. This fits a pattern. Trump openly admires the cleverness and effectiveness of violence done by authoritarian leaders, in this case Hamas, but previously in remarks about Russia's Putin, the "iron hand" of China's Xi Jinping, and North Korea's Kim Jong-Un. 

Trump has personal grudges. He is still unhappy that Benjamin Netanyahu phoned Biden to congratulate him on his victory. That was the theme of the NH Leadership Conference: Trump is all about himself, looking backward. Christie is running an ad calling Trump "foolish." Haley, Scott, DeSantis, and Hutchinson say Trump is wrong on Israel. 

Trump has successfully managed the optics of strength and domination. He wins because he looks strong, cruel, hard-headed. and realistic about threats to himself and to Americans. Republicans see him as Goliath in contrast to feeble Biden. But President Biden is having the best week of his presidency. While Trump is flailing, Biden is solidly in support of Israel. He is sending aircraft carrier groups to Israel. He is entering the war zone. 

Biden is ignoring and marginalizing the Squad comments critical of Israel. Biden looks like a sound, experienced leader, independent of his fringe, at the very moment that the GOP appears to be succumbing to its fringe as it chooses a Speaker.

Republican partisans deep in conservative media won't experience this moment of change in the 2024 drama. Conservative media describes Biden's sure-footedness here as a split in the Democratic coalition, amid references to Harvard students and a Cornell professor. But for people outside the cocoon, something is changing. Biden looks strong and Trump is weak. If polls start to show Biden defeating Trump. then the whole edifice that supports the Trump's inevitability crumbles. Trump looks like a loser. 



Trump is making speeches in Iowa complaining of persecution. Trump the victim. Poor Trump. 

Biden is on Air Force One on its way to Israel to represent the United States.



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Monday, October 16, 2023

Ramaswamiy at the GOP Summit

Vivek Ramaswamy gave an analysis of party realignment in U.S. It was a TED talk.

But he ruined it by talking about what he would do as president.


He is an over-caffeinated speaker. In the two TV debates he was a bullying, condescending know-it-all. But alone on the stage he becomes a TED-talk presenter letting us in on a secret he discovered. He reminds me of a revival minister or infomercial pitchman with either heaven or an extraordinary product the reward.

He explained that the American left began this century primarily interested in incomes and fairness. A Republican president and the Fed bailed out the banks in 2008 after the financial crisis. Bankers kept their bonuses. Regular working American taxpayers paid the bill. That energized the Occupy Wall Street people. 

But then the left got distracted by policy advocates who thought the real problem in America is prejudice. These thought leaders were housed in universities, cause-oriented nonprofits, and think tanks. They were people with liberal arts degrees and refined sensibilities. Books, magazines, and serious journalism carried articles calling racial prejudice, misogyny, and homophobia the cause of poverty and social pathologies like addiction. This prejudice wasn't just the bias of individual racists. Leftist thought leaders argued that racial prejudice was deeply systemic and imbedded in American culture, language, and institutions.

That set of ideas appealed more to well-educated urbanites than to the non-college working class. Working people, especially White males, even including people doing hard, dirty, poorly-paid work, were defined as oppressors. They recoiled from the accusation. Democratic politicians followed the guidance of the academic thought leaders; moral scolds were on the lookout. Democrats chose elites instead of working people.

Wall Street and corporate elites were delighted the left got distracted. It was easy and cheap for them to put women and minorities on boards and in advertisements.

Ramaswamy wants to represent the new, realigned Republicans, the people who are scolded and shamed by cultural elites. Ramaswamy is a populist.  He defends old-fashioned popular verities: There is a God, nuclear families are the best, there are two sexes, etc.

He voiced a combination of conspiracy theories and Trump-ism. He condemned Dr. Anthony Fauci, criticized universities, supported voting exams for young voters, dismissed climate worries, supported fossil fuels, condemned the prosecution of January 6 rioters, supported the idea of suitcases of fake ballots, condemned the Justice Department, and said we could have an immediate cut of 75% of the federal employees. 

He would have been an interesting young assistant professor when I was in college, had he stuck to the analysis of the political structure.  He is not competitive in this current endeavor because he is crowding into the already-filled lane held by Trump and DeSantis. 

If Trump is re-elected I expect Ramaswamy to ask to be Attorney General. Watch for this. It would be a mistake for Trump. Ramaswamy would be loyal to his own ambition, not to Trump. At some point Trump would ask him to do something so dangerously illegal that Ramaswamy would refuse. Trump doesn't want another Pence. 

Here is a CSPAN videotape of his speech. Click: about 40 minutes



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Sunday, October 15, 2023

Easy Sunday: I ask a question of Chris Christie

Chris Christie spoke to  a roomful of Republicans at a GOP Republican "Leadership Conference."

I asked him a question.

Chris Christie has extraordinary political talent.  He is clear, direct, persuasive, and fluent in his presentations. 

He can read a room.

He got tepid applause from this group of activist Republicans when he was introduced. There were Trump-skeptical people in the room looking for viable alternatives to Trump, but the theme of the conference was "Team Republican." Chris Christie had criticized the team captain which makes him a traitor. Talented, perhaps, but a traitor. 

Christie is verbally talented enough to dodge direct landmines. He spoke generally of "others in this race" who opposed U.S. support for Ukraine or who criticized Netanyahu and praised Hezbollah. He said that silence or equivocation in the face of evil was collaboration. I thought Christie was being coy.

There were a dozen TV cameras just behind me. I wanted him to be what Christie can be: Clear and forthright to a national audience. I asked him a question at minute 10:45. (If you want you can advance to that point with the slider at the bottom of the screen.) I am not on camera, but I had been handed a microphone and you can hear my question.

Click. 

He laughed at the idea that he of all people needed to be nudged to be forthright. He spoke Trump's name and condemned his effort to overthrow the election.

But notice. This is a heads up to Democrats who think that Republicans unhappy with Trump won't support him in a general election. Christie says that he won't support a person convicted of a felony. A person who joyfully justifies felonious anti-democratic actions to overthrow an election, a person who is indicted on felonies but who manages to get trials delayed so he is not formally convicted on election day, a person who pleads the Fifth to felonies, a person who is tried for felonies but benefits from a holdout juror -- well, that person might be OK.

Even Republicans as unhappy with Trump as is Christie are looking for a way to stick with the team if at all possible.




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