Nikki Haley in Exeter, New Hampshire.

Nikki Haley is a bit kinder, gentler, and more empathetic than her major GOP competitors.

She is running a general election campaign.

Haley in Exeter, NH

She seems to be positioning herself as an old style, pro-business Republican, and not totally about grievance and anger. It fits her condition; she cannot out-Trump Trump, although DeSantis and Ramaswamy are attempting it. She is the alternative. She calls this looking forward, not backward. She is the "establishment lane."

Nikki Haley is a foreign policy hawk on Israel, China, and Ukraine. Her Ukraine position sets her apart from Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy. She is hard on foreign military and trade threats -- she calls them enemies, not competitors --  but she talks about compassion, cooperation, and getting to "yes" among fellow Americans. DeSantis talks of confronting Disney and bending them to his will. Haley talks about the tragic murders of Black Christians in the Charlestown church and her work to get consensus to remove the Confederate flag from the South Carolina statehouse.

She led off in Exeter, as in every speech, by saying that out-of-control spending is due to Republicans as much or more than by Democrats. It sets the tone of Haley-as-truth-teller, willing to say the tough things, to be partisan, but not blindly so.

I have heard the same speech four times now. It is thoroughly practiced and fluent, and to my ear it sounds word for word, with the same inflections, same apparent offhand personal observations, in each iteration. Her newly married daughter still frets about being able to afford a house. Her son in college still has to write papers saying things he doesn't believe to get an "A." Maybe he should take other classes.

Her three minute talk on abortion is an example of this conservative-but-empathetic Nikki Haley. Watch.

Her Town Hall in Exeter lasted exactly one hour. She put intended applause lines into her talk. Here are the ones that in fact drew applause.

Term limits for Congress. (Applause.)

If Congress doesn't pass a budget, they don't get paid. "No budget, no pay." (Applause.)

Parents should know what kids are being taught. (Applause.)

Defund sanctuary cities once and for all. (Applause.)

"No catch and release for illegals. Catch and deport." (Applause.)

It's right for America to have Israel's back. (Applause.)
Israel has shown restraint. They have the right to fight back.  (Applause.)

Iran is behind all the trouble in the Middle East. (Applause.)

Our biggest threat is China. They buy our farm land. They are stealing ideas in our universities.  They make most of our military drones.They build more ships than we do. China is developing technologies to change our brain waves. (Applause.) 

No more letting China buy farm land in America.  (Applause.)

To be strong we need energy independence and strengthen our military. (Applause.)

We don't need a department of defense. We need a department of offense. (Applause.)

Kids need to say the pledge of allegiance every day.  (Applause.)

In South Carolina we have welfare to work. (Applause.)

South Carolina has the lowest recidivism rate in the U.S.    (Applause.)

After her three-minute abortion answer. (Applause.)

Let veterans go to the doctor of their choice.  (Applause.)

Members of congress should have to get their health care from the VA.  It will become the best health care in the world.  (Applause.)

Told long story about taking down the confederate flag. Don't be hating on each other. (Applause.)

I want foreigners to respect America. (Applause.)

Long answer to question from 18 year old. We will make the world better for you young folks. (Applause.)

"I have done over fifty town halls in New Hampshire." (Applause.)

I think Trump was the right president at the right time. But now we need a new generation. (Applause.)

We can't afford a president Kamala Harris. (Applause.)

We need to cut the federal budget back to pre-Covid levels. (Applause.)

Should there be new leadership in the GOP? I think there should be new leadership everywhere.  (Applause.)

Scrum after the event

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.] 

Israel: Be strategic

     "I fear that the Israelis are doing exactly what Hamas hoped for in their response to the atrocity."

               Robert Litt.

What is Israel to do? They were flagrantly, heinously attacked. It was an outrage. They must do something big, something that changes an intolerable status quo for the better. 

Today's Guest Post returns to the theme I brought up two days ago. The actions that might feel right, the actions that might be demanded in a democratic polity, may not be the ones that best advance Israel's interest. The world now, and history, will look closely at how Israel responds.

There is news happening in a rush. The House is trying to choose a Speaker. Trump's legal problems. The war in Ukraine. The new economic numbers. The 2024 presidential nominations. I am in New Hampshire looking closely at that nomination story, I saw Nikki Haley last night and will see a half dozen more candidates today. But those reports can wait. There is a crisis in Israel.

Today's Guest Post is written by a college classmate, attorney Robert Litt. He is former General Counsel for the Director of National Intelligence, and is currently of counsel in Morrison & Foerster’s national security and global risk and crisis-management practices. He advises industry-leading organizations on sensitive national security and privacy matters, white collar investigations, and government enforcement actions. Litt is  has extensive experience advising clients on national security matters. Readers may recognize his name from national media, which use him as a well-respected commenter to make sense of national securiry issues. His selection to be General Counsel passed the senate unanimously.

Guest Post by Robert Litt

I have a recollection that many years ago there was an editorial cartoon about the Mideast, perhaps by Pat Oliphant. Israel had been the subject of public condemnation for something - perhaps an incursion into Lebanon - but the PLO then hijacked a plane and blew it up on an airport runway (after the hostages were allowed to leave the plane). The cartoon showed a Bedouin-style tent with a group of stereotypically dressed Arabs sitting inside; through the open flap one could see a smoking plane, and an Arab running in holding a large trophy overhead, saying “Great news, comrades! We've just reclaimed the world stupidity trophy from the Israelis!”

I don’t mean to make light of the horrible suffering on both sides. But I fear that the Israelis are doing exactly what Hamas hoped for in their response to the atrocity. And as a lawyer who spent some years dealing with national security issues, I’m focused on the legal aspects, recognizing that there are diplomatic, moral and public relations aspects as well. Historically, despite much criticism, the IDF has actually been fairly careful about trying to comply with the laws of war by attacking what they consider to be military targets. Civilian casualties are inevitable in a war and are not considered a war crime if they come in the course of an attack on a valid military target, and the civilian casualties are “proportionate” to the military objective. When you bomb a munitions factory, civilian workers will be killed.

There’s no conceivable legal justification for what Hamas did - no one can say with a straight face that they were attacking military targets. And while in the past Israel has been able to defend its airstrikes in Gaza as going after military targets (with civilian casualties inevitable because of Hamas’ practice of placing military facilities in civilian areas - which can itself be a war crime), reports suggest that they are not being so discriminate now, and are, for example, flattening entire blocks. Moreover, I find it hard to consider cutting off all food, water and electricity to a population of 2.5 million as a valid military strategy. Sadly, it seems like Israel is just seeking punishment and revenge. Their rage and need to protect the country is understandable, but I wonder what the IDF lawyers are thinking.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.] 

Tragedy of the commons

 To Trump, or not to Trump. That is the question.

I am having “first world” problems this morning.  The wi-fi system is “down” at the Nashua Extended stay place, and the hotel is is a shadow of cell phone reception.  Amid the grave problems of the world, this is a small one, but it is mine.

This weekend Republicans aspirants will demonstrate the problem of common spaces, discussed by Aristotle and by philosophers, economists, and game theorists ever since.  It is in the interest of each candidate to grab all the non-Trump votes available, so each attempt a long-shot, hail-Mary campaign.  If they all dropped out and supported Nikki Haley, she would defeat Trump, I think, and she would defeat Biden. That race would pit yesterday-Biden against the today-post-Trump-GOP, a bad matchup for Democrats.  I am here in New Hampshire to see if it happens.

Meanwhile, the GOP-majority House is doing a version of the same thing. The bomb-throwers on the nihilist right insist on policies that will bury the 25-40 GOP House members who represent purple and blue districts — including one of Oregon’s. Republicans are considering advancing Steve Scalise. He voted against recognizing electoral votes cast for Biden. He still refuses to say aloud in public that Biden won and Trump came short. That is a deal-killer for some Republicans, and it is toxic for about 60-65% of Americans. 

Republicans are superb at appealing to disaffected working class Americans who feel the institutions of government aren’t working in their interest. Democrats need to recognize that this group carves out a huge segment of the traditional Democratic coalition, and it could cause Republicans to win national elections.  Republicans are doing self-defeating things, but may win anyway.

I cannot recommend Extended Stay America hotels. Quite the opposite.  Avoid them.

I am writing this on an I-pad with a weak phone connection.

Revenge. Hot and sweet.

Hamas attacked Israel and wantonly killed and kidnapped people they encountered.
     At first Israelis were shocked. It was so sudden.
     Then they were horrified, as they learned what took place. It was so cruel. 
     Then they got angry and wanted payback.

I describe a widespread reaction among Israelis, Americans, opinion people in the news, people commenting on social media. I feel it myself. We are shocked by the brutality. 

Gaza yesterday

It is probably too soon to talk about our common humanity. Angry people don't want to hear it. "Common humanity" sounds weak, idealistic, fuzzy-headed, and empathetic to evil-doers. Those come across as words from sentimental fools who survive because of the courage and protection of realistic, hard-headed people who understand violence, and are willing to use it. It is too soon, too, to talk about long term goals or effective strategy. A strategy is already in place: It is to inflict punishment. 

People have said to me, "Don't talk to me about moral equivalence. The Palestinians are evil. Period. End of story. They brought whatever happens on themselves." Of course GOP candidates were piling on with this message, but even low-drama, soft-spoken Biden  was unequivocal saying that they are "evil, pure unadulterated evil." This is something both Democrats and Republicans can say. Indeed, must say. The public mood demands it.

Israel is a troubled democracy, what with Netanyahu challenging the independence of the judiciary, but in every democracy the people's will must be reckoned with. The Israeli Defense Minister meets the public mood. He called Hamas "animals," and is treating the people of Gaza like animals. They are trapped in a slaughterhouse. Videos of buildings exploding and crumbling are a google click away. Whole blocks are turned to rubble. 

It is too soon for a person in public life to fuss about that. Too many people like seeing the payback. We hear stories of babies being beheaded. Of a girl swung by her ankles and her head slammed against a wall. Brutes! They must learn a lesson and pay a price. This is war.

I understand and expect the desire for revenge, but I feel something different.

New York Times

I worry about who was in the buildings that exploded and fell. Were all the people in it evil, deserving of being crushed, trapped, suffocated in the rubble?  Were there young children in there?  Babies? Did they choose Hamas? Murder up close, with a blade, to make a political point, is terror. It is so wrong. But an artillery shell fired five miles is an act of calculation and craft, designed to eliminate a target. We see the crushed building, the smoke and dust, not the crushed head. It, too, is terror.

Like the Israeli victims at the music festival, the people in the rubble were accidents, people in the wrong place at the wrong time, killed on purpose to make a political point. Possibly the people killed and kidnapped by Hamas supported Netanyahu. Others not. Who knows their politics? They were Israeli, and that was enough for Hamas. The people in the rubble had no meaningful political agency, but they were ruled over by Hamas. That was enough.

Gaza yesterday

In time people will sit in quiet spaces to consider long term goals and effective strategy. Israelis and Americans will wonder why a thousand people went on a likely suicide mission to kill Israelis at a music festival. What motivated them? Could they possibly have considered themselves patriots, like so many of those who broke through the doors and windows of the Capitol? I have urged Democrats to consider what motivates people in the Trump orbit. Something is going on. Disagree and disapprove of them, sure, but try to understand them.

I hope the people do the same with the Hamas attack.

I have asked questions. I will suggest an answer and make a prediction. The Israeli response will feel good and appropriate in the short run, but it won't age well. It won't lead to peace. More Israelis will die because of it. Tit for tat for tit for tat for tat. . . .

I heard a joke yesterday from a college classmate. A man bemoaned the centuries of religious strife in the Holy Land. He asked God, "when will this end?"

God shook his head in dismay and said, "not in my lifetime."

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]

Harvard: "We, the undersigned student organizations. . . "

The 31 pro-Palestinian groups at Harvard said something foolish. They wrote:

We, the undersigned student organizations, hold the Israeli regime entirely responsible for all unfolding violence. The apartheid regime is the only one to blame.

Israeli violence has structured every aspect of Palestinian existence for 75 years. From systematized land seizures to routine airstrikes, arbitrary detentions, to military checkpoints, and enforced family separations to targeted killings, Palestinians have been forced to live in a state of death, both slow and sudden.

I cite this example of moral obtuseness because a number of readers sent me links to this story, conflating these activist groups with Harvard students generally, with Harvard-the-institution, and with me. I will summarize their message to me:

 See! You aren't so smart, Peter. There are idiots at Harvard! Anti-Semites, too! Harvard produces brainwashed jerks! Maybe you, too.

Good test-takers like Harvard students should have known better than to write what they did, regardless of their politics. Any true-false or multiple choice question which uses the words "entirely responsible" or "only one" is wrong. Life is more complex and nuanced than that -- especially the situation in Israel. Israel is a mess, and I see victims trapped by their history. Not heroes.

People there have been fighting over conflicting claims of possession for 75 years, back to the founding of Israel as a nation; or rather to the Crusades, or rather back to the Prophet Mohammed; or back to the First Century and the Roman destruction of the Jewish Temple; or better yet, back another thousand years to the Jewish conquest of the land of Canaan described in the earliest books of the Jewish Bible. And probably before that. 

Following the holocaust in Europe, Jews sought a homeland. The UN created a nation of Israel, but Jews believe they have a prior and sacred claim: God gave the land to them. All of it is sacred land, especially the Temple Mount, where King Soloman built a temple. Alas, that same God made that a sacred spot for Muslims, too, the place where the Prophet Mohammed ascended to heaven. This isn't simple.

In response to Hamas' attack, Israel's Defense Minister announced:

I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly.

The Biden administration's messaging began as support for Israel, combined with an expression of hope that the Israeli response would show restraint, to minimize loss of innocent life in the densely populated Gaza and in hope the war does not expand to full-scale regional war. Republicans criticized this, saying it implied moral ambiguity and criticism of Israel's right to defend itself. The Biden administration deleted tweets that had called for restraint and replaced them with the statement that "Israel has the right to defend itself, rescue any hostages, and protect its citizens."

Of course, this is grist for U.S. presidential politics. The crosscurrents create inconsistencies, hypocrisy, and nuance. People who urge Ukraine to accept the invasion of Russia and compromise over territory to end the suffering of war, also condemn asking Israel to exercise restraint. Trump said that the fighting in Israel -- and Ukraine, too -- would never have happened if he were president. Ron DeSantis said that Biden had "gone easy" on Iran, and that "Israel is now paying the price for those policies." Mike Pence said "this is what happens when @POTUS projects weakness on the world stage [and] kowtows to the mullahs in Iran." Other candidates say similar things.

There is a revolutionary strain within the American left that defines itself in opposition to the political center and right, but also in opposition to the establishment left. We saw it in the year 2000, when Ralph Nader ran as a third party. From the view of the revolutionary-left, little harm was done since Republicans and Democrats are nearly indistinguishable as parties of empire, colonial wars, White supremacy, patriarchy, and corporate capture of politicians. In 1972, George McGovern himself was not part of the revolutionary-left, but he was supported by people like me who thought the establishment-left to be pro-Vietnam war. Many of Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign volunteers were from this revolutionary-left, and they vigorously attacked Elizabeth Warren. Bernie Sanders himself did not .

The revolutionary-left serves a purpose. They call out compromises and hypocrisy within the establishment left. On cultural issues, they articulate the point-of-the-spear issues that push social change on issues of race, LGBTQ, transgender, and social benefits. They don't do what is necessary to be popular; they seek justice and righteousness and they currently represent the thinking of educational and cultural elites, not the non-college masses. If they succeed in an area -- for example, marriage equality for homosexuals-- they move the goalpost to equality and participation of trans athletes. Readers call me out for being critical of the revolutionary-left. I think they create more backlash than forward progress. My critics disagree.

There have been socialists, communists, hippies, yippies, anarchists in or near the Democratic Party. They are outliers, influencing policy, but not electing leaders. They are to the left of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and AOC, all of whom spoke out in support of Israel while condemning the Hamas attack. Although it fits the GOP narrative to call Biden a communist and Marxist, and to say revolutionary-leftists are typical Democrats, they mis-aim. The Biden administration and the current Democratic Party is firmly part of the mainstream establishment left -- to the regret of the Harvard protesters.

I analogize the Harvard group to the members of the political right who condemn Ukraine, call it a corrupt Nazi-friendly country, blame the U.S., NATO, and Biden for the Ukraine war, and are sympathetic to Putin, though not to Russia bombing civilian targets. Those people are not outliers within the GOP.  They have a near-majority of GOP primary voter support and their leading candidate, Trump, espouses that policy.

Among Democrats, the Harvard group is an outlier. 

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]

New Hampshire candidate events

GOP candidates are converging on New Hampshire.  

The 17-day window to file as a candidate for president opens Wednesday.

New Hampshire Statehouse

Mike Pence will be the first to file. He will be on the second floor of the NH State House building at 8:45 on Friday, October 13. I hope to be in the room with him. Four years ago, when he filed on behalf of the Trump-Pence ticket, citizens could not get near him. Secret Service had everything blocked off with police cars and barricade fencing. He came up the back stairs and was in and out in five minutes. It might be that way again. As a former VP he has Secret Service protection and the threats on him from fellow-Republicans are more salient now than they were four years ago when he got cheers. Trump is calling Pence a RINO, a traitor, and an enemy of the people. I am curious to see how Pence is handling his personal safety. Attending the Pence filing -- whatever it turns out to be -- is easy. There is plenty of free parking on the street right at the Statehouse. The state capital, Concord, is an easy freeway drive from Manchester, the population center of the state.

In previous cycles the candidate showing up, paying $1,000, and signing the affidavit stating that he is a member of the party in which he is running -- the requirements for being on the ballot -- is an excuse for a media event. There is typically a crush of supporters and media at the tiny corner office and the hallways outside it. Then the candidate gives a speech either on the Statehouse steps or the front lawn. Then supporters gather across the street at a restaurant.

Here is what Amy Klobuchar's filing crowd looked like four years ago. It is typical for what I have seen in prior cycles for John Kasich, Chris Christie, Bob Bennett, Hillary Clinton, Carly Fiorina, and Bernie Sanders.

The desk where candidates sign.

The jammed hallway outside the office

Setup for speech

There is a "First in the Nation Summit" event taking place on Friday and Saturday. This event, and the filing window, draw a concentration of candidates to New Hampshire.

Nikki Haley has scheduled town Halls in Rochester and Exeter. Doug Burgum has a speech at Dartmouth College. Asa Hutchinson will address a school assembly at Manchester Central High School. Vivek Ramaswamy has several Town Halls and then a "Vektoberfest" rally at the Bedford Sportsplex in Bedford. Chris Christie has a town hall at the Veterans of Foreign Wars Post in Merrimack. I will attend all these. I expect more events to fill in. Trump is not on the schedule for the Leadership Event. He will speak at a rally in Wolfboro later today. Trump avoids multi-candidate events. He is the GOP star, and he doesn't want to share his audience. No need to give media oxygen to opponents.

I wear a "Media" lanyard around my neck sometimes at events. Media always gets a seat, but those are at the back at events, so they can view both the candidate and the audience. The best seats are for voters. People arriving early can sit up front. I am a voter and I fit the profile and demographic of a stalwart Republican voter and Fox viewer: White, male, a senior. I fit in. I get better conversations with Republicans if they think of me as a fellow citizen and kindred spirit, not "media." I listen and nod.

My posts for the next two weeks may be ragged and inconsistent. I will have lots to describe but may not have time to get a post written.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]

Easy Sunday: Taylor Swift

 Who the heck is Taylor Swift?

Just the biggest thing in music. The biggest celebrity. The person with the most fans. The person who breaks records in music downloads and ticket sales.

The person who caused Congressional hearings on how Ticketmaster failed to plan for the deluge of sales. The person who caused Apple Music to start paying royalties for downloads. The person who caused Spotify to change its policies. 

The person who endorsed Biden and Harris in 2020. The person who urged people to register to vote and 66,000 people did the next day. The person who supports abortion rights and LGBTQ rights and is upfront about it.

The person whose boyfriends become celebrities when she dates them, and then bigger celebrities when they break up and she sings about them. Taylor Swift writes songs about heartbreak and disappointment. 

She started as a country singer, with a debut album recorded when she was 15.

2006

She evolved into pop. She still sings about heartbreak and disappointment.

2023

I realized my priorities and interests are unusual. Too much politics; not enough popular culture. Heck, I knew who Doug Burgum* is -- what he looks like, what he says --  but I wouldn't have recognized a photo of Taylor Swift until this morning, when I looked her up.

Here is a link to a song from her first album, about a boy with a pickup truck, and recent hit song, Anti-Hero, where she sings that her "depression works the graveyard shift" and "It's me, hi, I'm the problem, it's me."

* Doug Burgum is the governor of North Dakota and a Republican candidate for president. 

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]