Trump reverted to Trump-ness

 He tried being nice for a day. Nah.

He is back. 

He staged a photo op: The balcony shot. We can look up at his greatness. The strong, triumphant leader. 

On Saturday night he tried something new: Mr. Nice Guy. It lasted for one day. 

This blog described his presentation. This blog speculated that it was an effort to re-connect with a group that he is losing badly, women, especially women with college degrees. He spoke to a camera and sounded genuinely grateful to the medical staff. He said COVID really knocks people back and he now better recognized that it was serious. He didn't seem angry. He called it the coronavirus, not the China virus. He said we needed to work cooperatively with other nations to defeat the disease. He acknowledged the bipartisan thoughts and prayers, and the good wishes from around the world, and said he would remember it.

No.

It just isn't his style. The next day he took a trip outside the hospital in a sealed up car, endangering the driver. Then he returned to the White House, stood on a balcony, took off his mask, and re-entered the White House virus infection pit. He had words to go along with the photo op:

"I learned so much about coronavirus. And one thing is for certain. Don't let it dominate you. Don't be afraid of it. We're going to beat it. We have the best medical equipment. The best medicines. All developed recently. And you're going to beat it."

He said he feels great, better than twenty years ago and again advised "Don't let it dominate. Don't let it take over your lives. Don't let that happen. We have the greatest country in the world. We're going back to work. We'll be out front."

The message was back to Mr. Strong, the indomitable, fearless leader. He embraced the political cliche of the man on the balcony. Trump as Caesar. As Mussolini. As Eva Peron. Trump has likened himself to wartime Lincoln, and then Churchill. We will beat this virus on the beaches, on the landing fields, in the countryside. 

 Click: 90 seconds

His critics jumped on this. 

The mainstream critics said he was modeling the behavior of virus scofflaws at a time when the infection rate was growing. They said his political events were super spreaders. He endangered people at the fundraisers, the Secret Service, his staff, Chris Wallace, and Biden. They say he and his family were acting entitled. There is a daily update of staff who report being infected, a scorecard of failure.

A tweet from The Lincoln Project, a group of anti-Trump Republicans, takes 30 seconds of Trump's "Don't let it dominate you" and sets it to somber music and scenes of COVID victims. It is scathing.

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1313305671438229504?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=emai

The grand gestures by Trump invite parodies. The Lincoln Project created an ad with Trump's climb to the balcony, with new words to the Eva Peron anthem "Don't Cry for Me, Argentina" changed to "Don't cry for me, White House staffers. The truth is I will infect you."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tZVnbDq9B4

And this one, mocking the Trump "Recovery":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T5BrmBVV5Q

The Biden campaign itself pulled its negative ads. It doesn't need them. The news of new infections in the White House cluster, plus ads from groups like the Lincoln Project, make the case against Trump. Trump has lost credibility on COVID. Only 31% of Americans say they trust Trump to tell them the truth about COVID. Only 65% of people who identify as Republicans trust him.

Optimism vs. Prudence

Bad stuff happens to the other guy.

Better safe than sorry.

America is watching dueling narratives. Trump is the optimist. Biden is the prudent one.

Joe Biden's campaign posted a three-word tweet, "Wear a mask." It consisted of a GIF showing Donald Trump taking off a mask and Joe Biden putting one on. There was text on the screen: "MASKS MATTER. THEY SAVE LIVES."

That's it. Simple.  Click: 2 seconds

Biden's campaign thought that this clear and direct contrast helps Biden. Maybe it does. What people tell pollsters suggests they are right--voters are worried about COVID, most of them at least. But what I see with my own eyes in parking lots of supermarkets, and in places where people can legally take off masks to eat or drink or work is that people hate masks. They want them off as soon as possible. Not everybody, no, but most people.

I suspect that Joe Biden's tweet hurts him. In the dueling narratives with Trump, Biden is the one showing the price of trying to manage COVID. His tweet looks at the present when we need masks. Trump's image depicts the happy condition of not wearing a mask. Freedom now.

The current message being hammered by CNN, MSNBC, and the newspapers of record is that mask-free Trump is a mask scofflaw who endangered his staff, his donors, the Secret Service, and he is persisting in doing so. He knew he was infected by Wednesday or Thursday for sure, and he went to fundraisers anyway. The lout. The sociopath. Trump was doing potential manslaughter, carelessly--wantonly--endangering people who foolishly trusted him. That is the immediate Democratic narrative: going mask free kills your friends and co-workers and Trump is a prime example of bad behavior.

The longer-term Democratic narrative is that masks are the sensible, prudent thing to do, and that they aren't that bad, not compared to dying or killing your friends. Moreover, epidemiologists are nearly united in saying they reduce virus transmission which will allow us to re-open the economy, carefully, and buy time till we get a vaccine. This is a message of prudence and self-discipline, but ultimate success.

We understand that message. We hear it all the time. Avoid sugar. Limit red meat. Limit alcohol. Don't smoke. Do aerobic exercise. Floss twice a day. Don't exceed the speed limit. It is the essential message of Biden's tweet.

Trump has a different narrative: isn't it great to take off the mask? Trump is lying to cover up his immediate problem of having gone to the fundraisers knowing he was infected. He gave Sean Hannity a false timeline, and he forbids his doctors to confirm what has become obvious from their contradictory stories and timing of Trump's treatment. He knew he was infectious. Still, the cover-up gives Trump supporters the fig leaf they need to avert their eyes. Who really knows for absolute certain how anyone gets infected? Who really knows why Herman Cain died? Most of Trump's events are outside and those are safe, and besides, BLM protests are crowded and Democrats say they are OK, so what is so wrong if Trump supporters do it?

Trump's verbal message is optimistic. "Don't let it dominate you. Don't be afraid of it." The image of Trump taking off his mask is body language verification. Happy days are here again. That might be the winning message. It was for FDR.

The presence of casinos document that Americans like to think they will be the lucky ones. People make investments--bets--on the future, hoping for good outcomes. They imagine a better future and they want it. Simultaneously, they worry about loss, which is why the insurance industry exists. The car accident might happen to you. It might be your house that burns. You might die young. 

So which is it? The casino or the insurance? A recurring theme of this blog is warning to Democrats not to under-estimate Trump's message and appeal. People feel both greed and fear, and they manage both emotions by focusing on the better future. 

Here is a tip to the Biden campaign: The insurance industry, which asks people to pay an immediate price (premiums) to protect against a future potential loss, does not focus on people writing the check to the insurance company. I have never, ever seen an insurance ad showing the happy, prudent policy owner smiling as he paid a premium. Instead, they focus on the peril, and then the happy resolution of the peril, the car fixed good as new, the children graduating from college.

Biden's tweet misses the benefit. Yes, masks save lives, but the other benefit is that wearing masks now is the most likely path toward the happy future of a COVID free America, when we won't need masks.  He is showing a prudent path to that happy day. Show the benefit, not the bill pay.  Show people back to normal, mask free. 

Trump is doing what Trump does, selling the sizzle, the get rich quickly and easily idea. Take off your mask now. Enjoy the present. Take your chances. The other guy might get sick but not you.

People know to be wary of that, and if choosing between get-rich-quick and get rich safely a great many people choose safely. I have a career observing that in investments. Biden has the winning argument.

But if asked between wearing a mask and not wearing a mask, Trump wins. People pay for insurance, but they don't like doing so. They want the payoff.

"Thoughts and Prayers" for Trump

 Republicans complain that Democrats are "blaming the victim."

     "The insinuation that anyone would deserve to contract COVID-19 is offensive and shameful."

           Rep. Jim Banks (R. Indiana)

Rose Garden Event

He was referring to comments by Nancy Pelosi. So was top GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy when he called her comments "unbecoming," "insensitive," and "rather disgusting."

Here is what she said:

"We all received that news [of Trump's diagnosis] with great sadness. I always pray for the president and his family that they're safe. This is tragic. It's very sad. But it's also something that, again, going into crowds, unmasked, and all the rest, was sort of a brazen invitation for something like this to happen."

That wasn't good enough. She said "brazen invitation," and those were fighting words.

The GOP has a message: Those mean Democrats. Poor Trump. They are laughing at him. They are hitting him while he is down. Trump's go-to emotion is one of indignation at attacks by the left. Republicans are clear about what they don't like--Democrats. Expression of sadness, tragedy, and prayers aren't enough.

Trump got COVID, and the message war taking place over whether to feel sorry for Trump, or whether to see this as his well-deserved comeuppance. Trump positions himself as the innocent victim of circumstance. Trump and America were doing just great until COVID, that sneak attack from China, and now-stricken Trump is attacked by Democrats who suggest that he was somehow responsible for any of it.

Tom Cotton, Senator from Arkansas, addressed this firmly on Fox on Sunday. How dare Democrats blame Trump for getting sick. The blame is China's, no-one but China's.

The Trump campaign complained that Biden had not successfully pulled all negative ads about Trump, hitting him when he is down, "while the president is at Walter Reed." 

And how dare Saturday Night Live suggest Trump invited the disease by having mocked Biden for wearing a mask. SNL called it irony. It's no laughing matter, says Fox.

Trump's diagnosis of COVID puts Democrats in a difficult position. Some Americans do indeed see Trump as a victim, pure and simple. Republican behavior around masks and social distancing has taken leadership by Trump. The thinking is that the disease is out there, it's China's fault, and there is nothing much anyone can do about it that isn't worse than the disease itself, so a lot of people are scofflaws and token observers of masks and social distancing.

Masks are political signaling, and many Republicans, especially in company of other Republicans, go mask less. It was policy at the White House. Masks are a Democratic hoax, and the nanny state gone wild. Therefore, Trump's behavior wasn't risky. It was realistic. It demonstrated Trump refuses to be played for a fool by the Democratic tyrants. 

From the Democratic perspective, Trump and his White House courted getting COVID and got what he should have expected.

Democrats have a dilemma. Democrats brand themselves as the party of compassion. They want to help everyone. It contradicts the Democratic message of universal coverage to say that some people "deserve" to get sick, for any reason. Democrats don't like to blame, but they need to blame Trump because it devalues mask-wearing and social distancing if Democrats say Trump is blameless. His getting COVID isn't random bad luck. He took big risks personally and set a White House policy that put hundreds of others at risk, and the consequences are showing up. Trump's COVID proves their point.

Nancy Pelosi handled an impossible job as well as a Democratic leader could do it. She expressed compassion with thoughts and prayers. She then stood firm with the Democratic position that masks and social distancing are important and identified Trump's behavior as risky. 

Humans have a moral instinct for fairness. They enjoy seeing people getting what they deserve. That moral sense hurts Democrats when they defend public benefits for the improvident. They look soft and over generous when they help people that others consider undeserving. Republicans get support by pointing out that Democrats end up giving benefits to "Welfare Queens" and people gaming the system.

This is the opposite situation. Trump took chances and acted like a know-it-all. He made his bed.

Trump to women: See! I can be nice!

New Message: grateful and bi-partisan. He loves everybody, really.

Trump is re-calibrating. COVID gives him the opportunity. 

One first thought regarding Trump and COVID is the traditional "thoughts and prayers." We understand it is the right thing to say. It is what Trump said about Ruth Bader Ginzburg. It is unkind to think that perhaps Trump's real emotion was glee.

A second, easily-reached thought on learning that Trump caught the virus is that Trump was hoist on his own petard. He had "played down" the virus, which meant the US had wider spread. He had mocked mask wearers and social distancing. He took risks. Karma boomerang.

A third meaning of the Trump-COVID connection is the meme suggested in this blog yesterday: Careless, callous COVID-spreader Trump. Yesterday afternoon Trump's campaign and various spokespeople attempted to sweep up the timeline mess. It is apparent that it had become obvious to the Trump team by Wednesday that Hope Hicks was infected, and therefore that Trump himself was highly exposed. He may have been showing symptoms himself. Still, they forged ahead with fundraisers in Wisconsin and New Jersey anyway, while pretending Trump was acting in ignorance. What did they know and when did they know it, and why did they persist in exposing donors, campaign staff, service staff at the events, and Secret Service? 

A fourth meaning of Trump with COVID was Trump as Mr. Tough Guy, essentially a continuation of the single big message that he is strong and dominating. Sure he was a bit overbearing but that is the nature of successful, dominating leaders, the kind that get three Supreme Court justices onto the bench. 

We saw something new on Saturday. A different Trump. It is a fig leaf to the White female voter who had taken a chance on him in 2016 but tell polls they are abandoning him for Biden. Trump is too Trump-ish, too divisive.

Click: video and transcript

It is best to watch a bit of this video to get the tone. It is like nothing Americans have seen. He is somber, contemplative. Trump doesn't appear to be in makeup. His hair is disheveled. He is tie-less. 

He sounds grateful, not angry. He sounds like he knows he is lucky. He didn't attack anyone.

He spoke of bi-partisanship.

He called it the "coronavirus," not the "China virus."

He sounded empathetic. He said he is going through something others have gone through.

He spoke of the need to work cooperatively with other nations.

He said he felt the bi-partisan love of the entire American people, indeed people all over the world, and that he would not forget it.

This is not a total re-boot of Trump. Trump is Trump. He describes himself as among great leaders who join the front lines in battles, taking risks, getting the virus because he was working so hard to do the job of president. He is still grandiloquent, but he is somber about it.

This version of Trump attempts a positive way to understand Trump and COVID. Trump isn't the blustering king of the mountain or the super salesman. He has climbed onto the presidential cross, wounded, suffering, selflessly sacrificing his health in service to America. Grateful Trump, generous of spirit. We are all in this together. Trump the Unifier.


Here is a transcript:


“I want to begin by thanking all of the incredible medical professionals, the doctors, the nurses, everybody at Walter Reed Medical Center — I think it’s the finest in the world — for the incredible job they’ve been doing. I came here. I wasn’t feeling so well. I feel much better now.

We’re working hard to get me back. I have to get all the way back because we still have to make America great again.

We’ve done an awfully good job of that but we still have steps to go and I have to finish that job. I’ll be back, I think, I’ll be back soon and I look forward to finishing up the campaign the way it was started, the way we’ve been doing and the kind of numbers we’ve been doing. We’ve been so proud of it.

But this was something that’s happened and it was something that happened to millions of people all over the world and I’ve been fighting for them, not just in the U.S., I’m fighting for them all over the world.

We’re going to beat the coronavirus, or whatever you want to call it, and we’re going to beat it soundly. So many things are happening, if you look at the therapeutics, which I’m taking right now some of them, and others that are coming out soon that are looking like, frankly they’re miracles, if you want to know the truth. They’re miracles.

People criticize me when I say that but we have things happening that look like they’re miracles coming down from God, so I just want to tell you that I’m starting to feel good. You don’t know the next period of a few days. I guess that’s the real test so we’ll be seeing what happened over those next couple of days.

I just want to be thankful for all the support I’ve seen whether it’s on television, or reading about it. I most of all I appreciate what’s been said by the American people, almost by a bipartisan consensus, by the American people. It’s a beautiful thing to see, and I very much appreciate it, and I won’t forget it. I promise you that.”
I also want to thank the leaders of the world for their condolences, and they know what we’re going through. They know as your leader what I have to go through. But I had no choice because I just didn’t want to stay in the White House. I was given that alternative: Stay in the White House, lock yourself in, don’t ever leave, don’t even go to the Oval Office, just stay upstairs and enjoy it. Don’t see people, don’t talk to people, and just be done with it, and I can’t do that.

I had to be out front and this is America, this is the United States. The greatest country in the world. This is the most powerful country in the world. I can’t be locked up in a room upstairs, totally safe and just say ‘Hey, whatever happens, happens’. I can’t do that. We have to confront problems. As a leader, you have to confront problems. There’s never been a great leader that would have done that.

So that’s where it is. I’m doing well. I want to thank everybody. Our first lady is doing very well. Melania asked me to say something as to the respect that she has for our country, the love that she has for our country, and we’re both doing well. Melania is really handling it very nicely. As you’ve probably read, she is slightly younger than me, just a little tiny bit.

And therefore, we know the disease, we know the situation with age versus younger people and Melania is handling it statistically like it’s supposed to be handled, and that makes me very happy and it makes the country very happy. But I’m also doing well, and I think we’re going to have a very good result.

Again, over the next few days we’re going to probably know for sure, so I just want to thank everybody out there, everybody, all over the world, specifically the United States. The outpouring of love has been incredible. I will never forget. Thank you very much.”

Let them eat cake

     "I don’t wear a mask like him [Biden.] Every time you see him, he’s got a mask. He could be speaking 200 feet away from him and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen."

       Donald Trump, mocking Biden at the Tuesday debate.

Donald Trump has his message.  Masks are for wimps.

The October Surprise is COVID's message.

Ivanka Trump at the Debate. She refused a mask.

The COVID virus has spread throughout the Trump White House inner circle, and beyond. Both Donald and Melania Trump caught the virus. Campaign manager Bill Stepien caught it. Advisor Hope Hicks, Advisor Kellyanne Conway, and RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel caught it. The President of Notre Dame, John Jenkins, Senator Mike Lee, and Senator Tom Tillis, who attended a Rose Garden event with the President, all caught it. Mike Lee brought it to the Senate Judiciary Committee, where he didn't wear a mask. We will see what happens there.

Trump and his entourage held a big fundraiser in New Jersey, even after they knew they were exposed to Hope Hicks. They didn't wear masks and they didn't mention Hope Hicks to the guests.

There had been protocols in place at the Tuesday debate requiring those in attendance, including the family members, to wear masks. Fox anchor Chris Wallace reported that the First Family removed their masks on entering and refused to wear them. He said, "A health person from the Cleveland Clinic came up to the first family when they were seated and offered them masks in case they didn’t have them, and they were waved away."

Trump is defining the Republican message on the virus and what to do about it. 

     1. The virus is all China's fault. Blame them.

     2. It really isn't that bad and the only people at risk are people already sick.

     3. Don't inconvenience yourself with masks, social distancing, economic slowdown or school closures, because the cure is worse than the disease.

     4. Masks are wimpy and a product of government nanny state over-reach, and you should be free not to bother. He doesn't. His family doesn't. His rally crowds don't. 

Trump planted his flag. He is a mask skeptic. He is for freedom. 

Meanwhile, Joe Biden, upon the news of Trump's COVID diagnosis, urged all Americans to wear a mask in public and called for a "national mask mandate."  He called Trump's diagnosis,"a bracing reminder to all of us that we have to take this virus seriously. It’s not going away automatically….The news is a reminder that we as a nation need to do better in dealing with this pandemic.”

Biden planted his flag.

The October Surprise may have already happened, the Tuesday debate. Trump's manner exposed him as a civic vandal, disrupting an American tradition. He was the crying infant on the plane, the cougher at the concert, the dog that won't stop barking, and he did it on purpose and at length. The debate may have sealed his fate with swing voters.

The October Surprise may have just happened: Trump getting COVID. It shows the disease can happen to anyone and that careless people get it, and that selfish people spread it. The news shows give us updates on Trump's health every 20 minutes. If COVID danger is the subject, then Biden is winning.

The October Surprise may be trickling in, as we learn the outcome of the disease from the various prominent people. If, over the next four weeks, everyone who gets the virus appears to get healthy and with minimum consequences, then the Surprise might be a partial validation of Trump. That is the story Trump is attempting right now, with happy tweets saying he is fine and concluding with all caps "LOVE!"

The news that dribbles out could go the other way, and if one of the famous people becomes very sick or dies. If a couple of Republican Senators die, tracked back to Mike Lee and Trump, that would change the Senate and the story. If Joe Biden gets the virus, tracked back to Trump at the debate, it would be a different story frame, this one of dueling candidates in hand to hand conflict, let the better immune system win.

An October Surprise the Trump campaign needs  to fear would be infection of a sympathetic victim who develops a following: a Black or Latinix member of the kitchen staff or uniformed members of the security detail or presidential transportation staff. It is one thing for Trump to go to a fundraiser and sicken fat cats--hey, they wanted that selfie--but another to infect a person whose job required them to be there, protecting someone who is casually, thoughtless spreading the disease. They don't want the story that Ivanka Trump couldn't be bothered with a mask and the pilot of Marine One died, leaving a widow and kids. They don't want BLM or Latinix groups with signs calling Trump a killer. Trump connected with the White working class "forgotten American" back in 2016 and his rallies have shown he has maintained a bond with many of them. That could be broken if Trump and his family are thought to be treating them as disposable saps.

We have seen spoiled rich people in life. They are seen as villains  The public recoiled on learning entitled Hollywood people paid, cheated, and connived to get their children into USC and Duke. We know that character type. High school students read The Great Gatsby in English class.

     "They were careless people, Tom and Daisy--they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together and let other people clean up the mess they had made."

COVID has come to the White House. In October we will learn which creatures get smashed up. 

 Click: NBC

Trump's COVID spotlight: Kamala Harris

Trump has COVID. 

This changes the subject from him being a belligerent jerk at the "debate," back to COVID. 

Trump getting COVID is a convenient October surprise. Or not a surprise, exactly. After all, he modeled behavior that was risky and carefree, so he caught the virus. Of course.

Within spitting distance

Trump may believe the "debate" helped him. Trump thinks the election is about domination. He dominated, so he won.  The polls say no. The red faced belligerent Trump communicated obnoxious rudeness, and therefore it hurt him among whatever swing voters might exist. He went too far.

Now the story is all about Trump and COVID, and there are two big frames. 

Frame One: Culpable "play-it-down" Trump mismanaged the virus and gets what he deserves. Trump complains of "the China virus" and says he saved millions of lives by banning travel from China in February. That implies that the virus is a big deal, but the real thrust of the Trump message is the opposite, that the virus is not all that big a deal, and not worth over-reacting to. Don't let the cure be worse than the disease, he said. 

Any American voter paying attention at all understands who is on which side: Trump and Republicans downplay the virus and say we should re-open schools and the economy generally. Biden and Democrats say it is a big deal and we should be very cautious. Trump and his family scoff at caution and masks. A rule of thumb in rural and exurban America is that if someone is refusing to wear a mask or is flouting its purpose by wearing it under the chin, that person is a Trump supporter.

Perennial story, this one from March 7, 2020

Democrats immediately thought of Herman Cain when Trump said that "nobody" got sick from his rallies, and Democrats point a finger of blame at Trump for the 200,000-plus people whose deaths have been attributed to COVID. Trump getting the virus is a condemnation of Trump's policies. Trump's COVID diagnosis puts Trump and COVID failure back in the spotlight.

All in all, that is very good for Biden in the election.

Frame Two: Strong Trump, frail Biden. It is Trump, not Biden, who caught the disease, so at first glance it would appear to be a simple morality play: the careless guy gets sick and the careful guy is safe. Unfortunately for Democrats, it isn't that simple. 

August, 2019, Iowa

Trump is making a big show of carrying on without interruption. He is Mr. Tough Guy; the virus can't stop him. Now the meaning of strong and dominant changes from the "debate" meaning of belligerent jerk wrecking something 80 million people turned in to see, to one of health. If Trump can get the virus, anyone can. Including Biden.

I have seen both Biden and Trump up close. Trump is thick, usually covered by a dark blue suit, with padded shoulders. Wearing golf shorts, Trump looks soft and chubby, but he usually appears in his presidential suit. If his height is indeed 6' 3" and his weight is indeed 245, then he is technically "obese" but in the standards of American men he looks strong rather than couch potato soft--especially when he wears his navy blue suits against a white shirt, with the lapels making  V-shape that suggests a manly narrowing to the middle.  All in all, he looks beefy.

Biden is a healthy weight, which makes him, by American standards, slender. He looks small by comparison. At the "debate" Biden looked pale. Pale was a very good way to look in the debate, making him appear cool and poised in comparison Trump's red-faced bellicosity. However, in the context of health and the ability to shake off the COVID virus, the polarity changes. Pale means something else, frail. 

Most American men in their mid-70's who get COVID survive it. Statistically, Trump will, too, even though he has the co-morbidities of age and weight. Statistically, so would Biden, slightly older, but not overweight. The overall attention on presidential vulnerability, though, may work against Biden at least as strongly as against Trump. Polls suggest most American voters have gotten comfortable with the idea of Biden as the replacement for Trump, replacing a bull in a china shop with a low key generic Democratic alternative. The "debate" emphasized that difference. But the COVID diagnosis for Trump puts Biden's vigor back into the spotlight. And that accelerates the position of Kamala Harris as a potential imminent backup to Biden, not a distant, theoretical one. Biden might get COVID. He might have caught it from Trump who was blasting him from ten feet away just last Tuesday. If Biden gets sick--as presidents could, we see--she would take over. She has been introduced to Americans, but we don't know her yet.

Trump's COVID diagnosis changes the race. Frames One and Two combine together this way: Yes, COVID is dangerous and Trump screwed it up, so Biden might get it. Are we really comfortable with President Kamala Harris? We need to see more of her, soon.

Trump defends the Proud Boys

A brand is a promise. Trump has a brand.

He is faithful to his tribe.

You know what you get when you order a Big Mac. Wherever you are, day or night, a Big Mac is consistent. A brand isn't a statement of quality; it is a statement of reliability. Two beef patties, one slice of cheese, chopped lettuce, a bun with sesame seeds on top, dill pickle slices, and a special sauce.

It is what it is. 

Donald Trump surprised and disappointed some people with his squishy answer at the debate when he refused to denounce right wing paramilitary groups or urge them to avoid violent interventions in the upcoming election. Pundits called it a missed "easy lay-up shot" because they consider it obvious that a president and candidate would--should--denounce violence by White supremacist groups. He didn't miss. He nailed a three-pointer from deep. 

Trump proved his brand. He turned the question into a denunciation of Antifa and leftists, addressed the Proud Boys and told them to "stand back and stand by" ready to monitor and engage in volunteer unregulated police actions. He didn't denounce them. He coached them. The Proud Boys, and unorganized people aligned with them, are White citizens with guns, standing against Black Lives Matter protests. They are in Trump's tribe.

Proud Boys, Portland

The fundamental promise in the Trump political brand is tribal. He isn't a role model of virtue. Quite the opposite. Trump gets criticized by people who think he ought to have different values. Trump's brand isn't personal virtue, nor faithfulness to rules, norms, and the law, nor national uniter. His brand is that he takes the side of his tribe even if--especially if--when doing so is hard and unexpected. 

Trump praised militia group at Governor's office in Michigan

He was criticized for clearing a park of peaceful demonstrators with a chemical spray in order to stride to the nearby church to hold up a Bible. That action had all the perfect elements of brand reinforcement. The action offended the virtues of respect for peaceful protest. He offended the liberal Bishop of the church where he did the photo-op. He was mocked for having held the Bible upside down and for being unchurched and personally irreligious. He was widely called hypocritical and a phony, including in this blog. 

He offended virtue, rules, laws, tradition, and national unity, all for a public demonstration to wave the flag of his tribe. Trump suffered for the sins of his people. The New York Times' disdain is his cross. His tribe noticed. Christ Trump.

Proud Boys

Trump spoke of "good people on both sides" in Charlottesville. This was another proof of brand. He supported the White couple in the gated community in St. Louis who brandished guns in the face of Black and White protesters walking past their home. Their actions were provocative and illegal but Trump defended and showcased them. More proof of brand. A 17-year old traveled to Kenosha bringing an AR-15 to a protest as a self-appointed militia, got into some altercations and killed two people. Trump praises him. More proof.

If McDonalds changed its recipe for a Big Mac when the price of beef or cheese went up, or when spinach was more plentiful than lettuce, it might be more healthy food, but health isn't their promise. The promise is that a Big Mac is a Big Mac.

Trump's fights for his tribe, whether they are right or wrong.  Not everyone is going to like what Trump is serving up, but this is still a White majority country, there are still more people without college diplomas than with them, and a great many--55%--of White Americans tell polls they believe Whites are discriminated against. Click  Trump has his niche.

The Proud Boys look rough and dangerous in the eyes of that swing state suburban woman voter. The preppy-looking White boys in Charlottesville were another hard case; they looked so privileged and self-satisfied. A 17 year old with a machine gun has to make people nervous. Trump defends hard cases.

There may still be enough people to get him up and over 270 electoral votes, but polls suggest Trump's appeal has dropped. Trump could have tried calling himself "new and improved." Nixon did in 1968 and it worked for him, the "New Nixon." 

In 2020 Trump chose to double down and be the same, only more. It isn't working. Brands get stale and sometimes customers are ready for something new.